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KilloWertz

Triston McKenzie 2020 Outlook

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8 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

It's Clevinger they are most pissed at.  Clevinger basically lied by boarding that plane with the rest of his teammates making his crap even worse than Plesac's.  I mean Carrasco would have been on that flight too and he has a very serous underlying condition.  I doubt if Clevinger ever takes the mound for the Indians again.  Yankees big time want a pitcher at the trade deadline and Cleveland has one to send and needs position players.

Any way you slice it, McKenzie is here to stay.

Yeah, I knew all about that.  Not that you would have known that for sure of course. :)  Anyways, I was just assuming that they would get rid of Plesac and not Clevinger since Clevinger is one of their best pitchers, but what you said makes sense.

Like you said, McKenzie should stick around, and that's pretty exciting after last night's debut.

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9 hours ago, KilloWertz said:

Despite what Rotoworld keeps saying, there is likely no chance either are back before the maximum 20 days they can be out are up. It gives the Indians an extra year of control on both players.  Yes, they deserved to be suspended, but given how good their pitching has been as a whole, I don't blame them if they do end up choosing to cheat the system a bit.  They have 4 solid starters now counting McKenzie, so it's not like they need them back right now.  It would also make little sense for McKenzie;'s development to just have him either go back to their alternate training site or sit in the bullpen.

We'll see what happens obviously, but McKenzie definitely earned a spot in the rotation for the foreseeable future with tonight's fantastic debut.  Trade Plesac, or have him go in the bullpen if they don't want to let him go yet.

While I think there is a possibility that the Indians wait to bring up Plesac and Clevinger (if they do) until they get an extra year of control, I think the Indians probably want to avoid that as much as possible. I think they are hoping the locker room situation resolves itself before they are forced to take such an action. It's a bad look overall, especially since player service time manipulations have such a spotlight on them. 

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Assuming he's jumped plutko, he's probably still number 6 with Plesac and Clev. Man what a stacked pitching core. Maybe a trade will happen.

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This kids been a criminally under rated pitching prospect for too long.  Finally given an opportunity and he exceeded expectations.  That said this will probably be his best start of the season.

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16 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

Assuming he's jumped plutko, he's probably still number 6 with Plesac and Clev. Man what a stacked pitching core. Maybe a trade will happen.

I would hope he's jumped Plutko after both of their recent starts. 😀

They could easily trade either one despite the controversy with the two of them. It's just a matter of if the Indians want to, and they really should at this point given their offensive issues.

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My guess is they leave Plutko and McKenzie in the rotation for 1 more turn which would give them an extra year of control of Plesac & Clevinger. They’re 17-10 now and in good shape to make the postseason. I suspect they’re going to take a long look at trading Clevinger at the deadline which would open a spot for McKenzie to stick. Given how fiscally conservative the Indians operate it makes a lot of sense to part with Clevinger now before he starts to get really expensive. They could deal him for a young, cost controlled outfielder (Verdugo?) and address their biggest weakness. Clevinger becomes all that more appealing and valuable on the trade market with an extra year of control. (Cue Yankees fans with their Clint Frazier offers). Maybe I’m biased because I own a ton of shares of McKenzie but I think it could happen.

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After watching more video I'm pretty impressed. Every pitch even the heater looks effortless when he throws. 

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Posted (edited)
30 minutes ago, KilloWertz said:

I would hope he's jumped Plutko after both of their recent starts. 😀

They could easily trade either one despite the controversy with the two of them. It's just a matter of if the Indians want to, and they really should at this point given their offensive issues.

 

As much as I would like to think that, Plutko was decent before that start and cost controlled. Teams don't make drastic rotation changes like that off one start. Sometimes they do. I think there's a chance he passed him but wouldn't guarantee it. I'm sure ideally the Indians want to stretch out Mckenzie's service time too.

Edited by brockpapersizer

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9 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

As much as I would like to think that, Plutko was decent before that start and cost controlled. Teams don't make drastic rotation changes like that off one start. Sometimes they do. I think there's a chance he passed him but wouldn't guarantee it. I'm sure ideally the Indians want to stretch out Mckenzie's service time too.

You are not wrong that it's not guaranteed, but Plutko has been below average at best for most of his short career.  One good enough start to begin this season doesn't/shouldn't change that.  Also, McKenzie's service time for this season has already been manipulated as he was well passed the 10 days it was required to get an extra year.  I know the Plesac/Clevinger thing is different, but I'm pretty sure McKenzie's service time is what it is for this season.

Plutko was only starting because of Plesac and Clevinger getting suspended.  The real question is what they will do with the both of them, not Plutko.  It would be really dumb on their part, and they aren't usually dumb, to just have McKenzie sit around anymore now that he's up, healthy, and proved he belongs. Again, we'll see what happens.

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7 minutes ago, KilloWertz said:

You are not wrong that it's not guaranteed, but Plutko has been below average at best for most of his short career.  One good enough start to begin this season doesn't/shouldn't change that.  Also, McKenzie's service time for this season has already been manipulated as he was well passed the 10 days it was required to get an extra year.  I know the Plesac/Clevinger thing is different, but I'm pretty sure McKenzie's service time is what it is for this season.

Plutko was only starting because of Plesac and Clevinger getting suspended.  The real question is what they will do with the both of them, not Plutko.  It would be really dumb on their part, and they aren't usually dumb, to just have McKenzie sit around anymore now that he's up, healthy, and proved he belongs. Again, we'll see what happens.

 

If they send Mckenzie down and not call him up for a long time next year they can 6 more years out of him, similar to Dodgers with Lux.

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It’s happening! (At least for another start)...

 

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2 hours ago, meh2 said:

My guess is they leave Plutko and McKenzie in the rotation for 1 more turn which would give them an extra year of control of Plesac & Clevinger. They’re 17-10 now and in good shape to make the postseason. I suspect they’re going to take a long look at trading Clevinger at the deadline which would open a spot for McKenzie to stick. Given how fiscally conservative the Indians operate it makes a lot of sense to part with Clevinger now before he starts to get really expensive. They could deal him for a young, cost controlled outfielder (Verdugo?) and address their biggest weakness. Clevinger becomes all that more appealing and valuable on the trade market with an extra year of control. (Cue Yankees fans with their Clint Frazier offers). Maybe I’m biased because I own a ton of shares of McKenzie but I think it could happen.

No way the Red Sox trade Verdugo.  Period.  He is one of their rebuild core and already becoming a fan favorite for his style and enthusiasm playing the game.  It is the Yankees who will strike anyways.  Welcome back home, Clint.

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They were thinking about trading clevinger before this came up because he's starting to get expensive and that's what the indians do. I don't think they will try to trade Plesac. A spot could open up via Clev, but I still think a trade is something they would rather avoid right now as Clev could be a difference maker in the post season. 

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On 8/23/2020 at 4:57 PM, meh2 said:

 

Haha pretty funny.

Only thing I didn't like was how he just kept pumping gas when ahead in the count. Maybe because the Tigers couldn't catch his heat, but is his offspeed good enough? Fear other teams will catch up to that fastball eventually, we need to see more of his offspeed offerings.

And damn he is built like a twig. 165lbs listed seems very generous!

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12 minutes ago, swfcdan said:

Haha pretty funny.

Only thing I didn't like was how he just kept pumping gas when ahead in the count. Maybe because the Tigers couldn't catch his heat, but is his offspeed good enough? Fear other teams will catch up to that fastball eventually, we need to see more of his offspeed offerings.

And damn he is built like a twig. 165lbs listed seems very generous!

He was pumping gas because it was a really effective pitch. His secondary offerings were a little inconsistent but all had moments where I was saying “wow”. With very good control, a potentially dominant fastball, and 3 solid secondary pitches there’s a lot to like. Still, he’s a rookie pitcher so 🤷‍♀️. Here’s a great thread highlighting how effective his fastball was.

 

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17 minutes ago, swfcdan said:

Haha pretty funny.

Only thing I didn't like was how he just kept pumping gas when ahead in the count. Maybe because the Tigers couldn't catch his heat, but is his offspeed good enough? Fear other teams will catch up to that fastball eventually, we need to see more of his offspeed offerings.

And damn he is built like a twig. 165lbs listed seems very generous!

From that Fangraphs article posted above....

Quote

Hopes that McKenzie would eventually develop a third pitch have more than come to fruition, as both his slider and changeup have evolved to complement the fastball/curveball combo that headlines his arsenal.

 

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1 hour ago, mehtavg2000 said:

Meh

That's one way to put it.  An extremely disappointing and frustrating follow-up to a fantastic debut.  Disappointing in the fact that he had no idea where the ball was going even though he has good control and frustrating given the fact that he couldn't last 5 innings to get the win in a blowout.

Am I going to all of a sudden write him off now?  No, of course not.  It could have been far worse obviously, and likely would have been without Deshields in CF, but it was still rough to watch after his debut.

Unfortunately now, the question is will he get another start?  Obviously would have if he pitched good again, but if I was Cleveland, I still would give him another start.  If he's bad again like he was tonight, then I suppose it's back to Plesac (if neither him nor Clevinger gets traded).

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2 hours ago, mehtavg2000 said:

Meh

Excellent analysis...

 

Didn't have control of the FB tonight despite the easy delivery. Seemed to aim it, rather than throw it all night. Curveball was filthy on many occasions, bottom just falls out ala K. Gross of years past... not sure why he didn't use it more when ahead in the count, but I'd doubt he's got any say in pitch selection. Not a great outing, but for a guy making just his second big league start, the numbers don't tell the whole story. IMHO, the game flow was odd... lot's of long innings of the Indians hitting, and he seemed to never really hit a "flow" in the game. The HR he gave up to Fowler cleared the fence by an inch or two, looked like a very "robable" ball, but Naquin took a bad route and made no attempt to catch it... mind you this was an 0-2 pitch that had ZERO business being hittable! Once again, great spot for the curve, but catcher called a FB and set up high and inside. This followed a walk to the previous batter O'neill, where McKenzie seemed afraid to give him a FB to hit, yet they were called 4-5 pitches in a row.

I'm surprised he didn't get a chance in the 5'th inning, but he could have had that chance if not for a bad double play attempt (his throw to 2'nd on a comebacker was high and off enough to delay the turn) and ultimately cost him another 6-7 pitches in the 4'th. @ 75 or so pitches, and w/ the huge lead, I'm sure they would have let him back out... but being in the mid 80's after 4 innings, and have thrown only 80 his first start, aaannd given his injury history... he got hosed today of a sure win. So be it, but "Meh" needs edification.

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Yahoo shows him pegged to start against KC next. I didn't see any official word from CLE if he was getting another start, or how many more he may get. 

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