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2020 SURVIVOR POOL THREAD


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1 hour ago, JE7HorseGod said:

I was thinking about the Niners but at the last second chickened out and took the Chiefs.

I don't think that many people have thought about "saving" the Cardinals at all this season.  When I think "saving" I think the Chiefs and the Ravens, and the Seahawks and Packers are starting to join that class.  I may have "saved" the Niners at one point but with all their injuries it's a different story.

 

When I said "saving their locks" I was referring to saving their picks on teams like Ravens last week.

 

Locks meaning dominant teams like the Ravens, Chiefs, etc.

 

My initial post was saying where's those people that did pick bum squads like the Cards because they wanted to save their locks (Ravens).

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You do what you feel is best, but I have a rule to never touch ROAD DIVISION RIVALS unless Vegas shows the spread as 10+.   This has generally served me well.

Herbert should smoke this team but if its one coach who would lose to the Jets, it is Anthony Lynn.

You had me til MIA, now we can no longer be friends.

24 minutes ago, ST. STEVEN said:

Ours were due on WED at 7PM, and that is exactly what I did...and it's hard to not feel confident about the Bills in this matchup anyways.

Despite me swearing I would never use a Josh Allen led team after what he cost me last year in that playoff game--dude looks totally different now.

 

Oh dude, I was just joking.  I hope you didn't do that.

 

I mean, I think the Bills will win, but that's a very very close matchup.

 

I was referring to default victory joking saying the Titans might get game forfeited from their positive COVID tests for having illegal practices and thus the Bills would get the DEFAULT VICTORY without even having to play.

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1 minute ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

When I said "saving their locks" I was referring to saving their picks on teams like Ravens last week.

 

Locks meaning dominant teams like the Ravens, Chiefs, etc.

 

My initial post was saying where's those people that did pick bum squads like the Cards because they wanted to save their locks (Ravens).

Ah, so, sorry read that wrong.

It would have been me had I not made the last second change based on confirmation that the Chiefs and Pats were playing.

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2 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

Oh dude, I was just joking.  I hope you didn't do that.

 

I mean, I think the Bills will win, but that's a very very close matchup.

 

I was referring to default victory joking saying the Titans might get game forfeited from their positive COVID tests for having illegal practices and thus the Bills would get the DEFAULT VICTORY without even having to play.

I did do it. Was a balance of 1 more positive likely cancelling the contest and that I do not think the Titans are all that good. They have been pretty fortunate to get to 3-0 imo. Now no practice for quite awhile and several key players that will miss the game. I am confident the Bills will handle them.

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Just now, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

This week I'm rolling with:

 

Ravens - Bungals @ Ravens  
Steelers - Eagles @ Steelers  
Cowboys - Gmen @ Boys   

Any thoughts on why I should avoid?

Are these all in the same pool? How many left?

Cowboys should win but for EV/strategy purposes, I tend to avoid the masses and Cowboys are the chalk pick this week.

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3 minutes ago, ludawg23 said:

Are these all in the same pool? How many left?

Cowboys should win but for EV/strategy purposes, I tend to avoid the masses and Cowboys are the chalk pick this week.

 

I buy 5 picks into this league I enter. 

 

I've got 4/5 left and 30 other picks remaining (34) with mine. 

 

We've lost a ton of the field already. 

 

I like to diversify my picks and have no issue putting some picks on chalk. 

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5 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

I buy 5 picks into this league I enter. 

 

I've got 4/5 left and 30 other picks remaining (34) with mine. 

 

We've lost a ton of the field already. 

 

I like to diversify my picks and have no issue putting some picks on chalk. 

Even so...is it the right week to use the Ravens given Lamar missed a day or two of practice?  I know, the Ravens could start a cardboard cutout of Elvis Grbac and still beat the Bengals, but Mixon looked alive last week...maybe Burrow is beginning to figure it out?

Cowboys and Steelers I totally get if you've got some chalk upset hedge.  Although you can't love that Tyron is done and the Boys defense is so horrible, it's the Giants, understood.

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5 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Even so...is it the right week to use the Ravens given Lamar missed a day or two of practice?  I know, the Ravens could start a cardboard cutout of Elvis Grbac and still beat the Bengals, but Mixon looked alive last week...maybe Burrow is beginning to figure it out?

Cowboys and Steelers I totally get if you've got some chalk upset hedge.  Although you can't love that Tyron is done and the Boys defense is so horrible, it's the Giants, understood.

 

Great points. That's what I'm looking for. 

 

Lamar did scare me because 1 day, OK, all vets get 1 day. 

 

2 has me concerned. If that guy can't run I honestly don't like him much as a QB. 

 

Only thing I did like is reports I read said "practicing with no restrictions". 

 

Cowboys Defense gives me pause. Cowboys OL gives me pause. Danny dimes and inept gmen on the road don't really give me pause though. 

 

Also this Cowboys injury isn't really new. Smith been out for a few games now right? 

 

I hear you though and I'm definitely not locked in and you raise great points. 

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Taking Baltimore. Their schedule actually tightens up quite a bit after next week and with the potential uncertainty of injuries and covid, I am prioritizing surviving now over potentially using them again later. I don't see a clear cut game where they're heavily favored after this week anyway. 

Dallas "should" win this week but I wouldn't take their defense in a survivor pool unless they were at home against the Jets. The Giants haven't been good but they played the Rams rather tough and haven't had any continuity with all their injuries yet. And it's a divisional matchup. Also add the o-line injuries to Dallas. I do think Dallas wins but it's not worth the risk to me. 

Eagles are a wildcard to me. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if they beat anyone on any given Sunday. Steelers with extra time off probably win, but again it's a risk that doesn't need to be taken for me, since Baltimore's schedule tells me that their future value isn't actually quite as good with their schedule. 

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I would have to look back to confirm, but I feel like Cincy has played Bal pretty solidly in recent years, even beating Lamar recently. Burrow really brings them up. I would be a tad apprehensive with Bal this week. I prefer the slightly less chalky PIT and esp SEA this week.

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42 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

Great points. That's what I'm looking for. 

 

Lamar did scare me because 1 day, OK, all vets get 1 day. 

 

2 has me concerned. If that guy can't run I honestly don't like him much as a QB. 

 

Only thing I did like is reports I read said "practicing with no restrictions". 

 

Cowboys Defense gives me pause. Cowboys OL gives me pause. Danny dimes and inept gmen on the road don't really give me pause though. 

 

Also this Cowboys injury isn't really new. Smith been out for a few games now right? 

 

I hear you though and I'm definitely not locked in and you raise great points. 

I'm with ya.

The only thing I don't fully understand, because I did not watch the game, is how the hell the Giants held the Rams to 10 points through most of the game last week.  It gives me pause.

The Steelers would definitely be the one of those three I'd feel the most comfortable with this week.

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There wasn't anything 'cute' about picking the 49ers last week. They were a -9.5 favorite from Vegas, any time you can get a -9.5 favorite, it's a great play in survivor football. Sometimes **** just happens because any given Sunday. This thread attracts the worst of the hindsight 20/20 experts who claim that they know better than Vegas, but then disappear when they are wrong.

 

45 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

If you're feeling bold, Houston is not going to lose this week after firing BOB. In fact, I think they win huge.

It's a risky pick, but I'm seriously considering it. Just look at their ROS schedule, no other week you could play them.

 

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28 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

I'm with ya.

The only thing I don't fully understand, because I did not watch the game, is how the hell the Giants held the Rams to 10 points through most of the game last week.  It gives me pause.

The Steelers would definitely be the one of those three I'd feel the most comfortable with this week.

 

Because Jared Goff is a slightly above average QB getting paid elite QB money which inhibits the rest of the team.

 

Don't say that in the Jared Goff thread though.  They'll attack you night and day.  Don't worry, I'll be back in that thread quoting everyone when the season ends though lol.

 

I'm with you on the Steelers.  Thanks for the input.

 

1 minute ago, atrium said:

There wasn't anything 'cute' about picking the 49ers last week. They were a -9.5 favorite from Vegas, any time you can get a -9.5 favorite, it's a great play in survivor football. Sometimes **** just happens because any given Sunday. This thread attracts the worst of the hindsight 20/20 experts who claim that they know better than Vegas, but then disappear when they are wrong.

 

It's a risky pick, but I'm seriously considering it. Just look at their ROS schedule, no other week you could play them.

 

 

Any team with a Backup QB anchored around one of the leagues best defenses who lost their top 2 pass rushers coupled with backup RBs is definitely pause for concern.

 

I will NEVER feel comfortable putting thousands of dollars on the line betting on a backup QB and backup defense when I can pick a healthier team that's a bigger favorite.

 

I'm not a hindsight expert either.  I'm a gambler, and most of my posts say I lose a lot but win more.  You should believe I laid money on Eagles getting 9 points last week, because it happened, if you don't though, that's fine, I'm just another guy on the internet to you and I get it.

 

If you were my personal friend I'd tell you all my weekly plays, but you're not, so I won't.  

 

And about knowing more than Vegas... well if you win every year, even if it's not big money, but you stay profitable, I tend to believe you can be labeled as someone that knows better than Vegas.  If you consistently lose, then I tend to believe you can be labeled as a gambling addict.

 

And so far over the last 7+ years I haven't told my family I'm an addict yet, lol.

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2 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

Any team with a Backup QB anchored around one of the leagues best defenses who lost their top 2 pass rushers coupled with backup RBs is definitely pause for concern.

 

I will NEVER feel comfortable putting thousands of dollars on the line betting on a backup QB and backup defense when I can pick a healthier team that's a bigger favorite.

 

I'm not a hindsight expert either.  I'm a gambler, and most of my posts say I lose a lot but win more.  You should believe I laid money on Eagles getting 9 points last week, because it happened, if you don't though, that's fine, I'm just another guy on the internet to you and I get it.

 

If you were my personal friend I'd tell you all my weekly plays, but you're not, so I won't.  

 

And about knowing more than Vegas... well if you win every year, even if it's not big money, but you stay profitable, I tend to believe you can be labeled as someone that knows better than Vegas.  If you consistently lose, then I tend to believe you can be labeled as a gambling addict.

 

And so far over the last 7+ years I haven't told my family I'm an addict yet, lol.

 

I'm not saying I don't believe you were against the 9ers pick, I'm just saying that for every call that you got right and can say you called it, I'm sure there have been plenty of fades you've proclaimed in the past, who you didn't mention after the week was over because they won. It's easy to make a "i'm avoiding this team" call, and then not bring it up later because everyone forgets. However, when you get the call right, you can look like a genius by bumping your own post. Just something I've noticed around here and I feel it's unnecessary "I told you so" stuff.

 

The same thing applies for "rules" in survivor football too. A lot of people have these rules like "i'll never touch a divisional road game", and then when an upset happens, they can pull the "see, I told you so" and pretend that they knew all along. But then they ignore all the divisional road games where the favorite wins, because it doesn't fit the narrative.

 

I'm not one to create 'rules' for survivor football. I evaluate each team and game on a case by case basis, and I don't care for set in stone rules. Especially ones that lend themselves to the old 'confirmation bias'.

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3 minutes ago, atrium said:

For example, the myth of divisional rivalry games being the ones to avoid: https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl-survivor-pool-picks/articles/never-pick-division-rivalry-games-survivor-myth/

Appreciate the data.

One rule I do have currently, and am open to dispelling, is west coast favorites traveling to the east for one o'clock games.  Have anything on that?

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3 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Appreciate the data.

One rule I do have currently, and am open to dispelling, is west coast favorites traveling to the east for one o'clock games.  Have anything on that?

This same site talks about road vs. home favorites, it doesn't get into the disadvantages of coast-to-coast travel for 1 pm specifically though, which would be interesting to look at: https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl-survivor-pool-picks/articles/never-pick-road-away-teams-survivor-myth/

 

The bottom line is that these disadvantages are baked into the final Vegas line.

 

From the article:

Quote

For example, there’s no benefit in picking a 6-point home favorite over a 7-point road favorite. Since 2002, as one should expect, 7-point road favorites have won more often, with a 70.3% win rate (64-27-0), compared to 6-point home favorites. (Those 6-point home favorites have won 61.9% of the time, less than 6-point road favorites during the same time period.)

 

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1 minute ago, AngryBeavers said:

SF is my pick this week;

 


I’d save them for when they’re healthier.

 

Baltimore is the easy and safe pick. I feel like I could only use them week 15 or week 16. I could really use them for week 16 because currently I have Chargers over the Broncos or the Texans over the Bengals.

If I saved Baltimore, I’m tempted to go with the Cardinals. They haven’t played well these last two weeks, so they run some risk on the road.

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1 minute ago, tpat30 said:

If I saved Baltimore, I’m tempted to go with the Cardinals. They haven’t played well these last two weeks, so they run some risk on the road.

Provided they play, which is looking a bit iffy at the moment, right?

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4 minutes ago, tpat30 said:


I’d save them for when they’re healthier.

 

Baltimore is the easy and safe pick. I feel like I could only use them week 15 or week 16. I could really use them for week 16 because currently I have Chargers over the Broncos or the Texans over the Bengals.

If I saved Baltimore, I’m tempted to go with the Cardinals. They haven’t played well these last two weeks, so they run some risk on the road.

I have a feeling that Cincy is coming to play on Sunday. Balt off of the KC embarassment.  Cin playing with confidence. I hear you... so.. if not SF or Bal, then who?

I guess my next choice is seahags, but.... 

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45 minutes ago, atrium said:

 

I'm not saying I don't believe you were against the 9ers pick, I'm just saying that for every call that you got right and can say you called it, I'm sure there have been plenty of fades you've proclaimed in the past, who you didn't mention after the week was over because they won. It's easy to make a "i'm avoiding this team" call, and then not bring it up later because everyone forgets. However, when you get the call right, you can look like a genius by bumping your own post. Just something I've noticed around here and I feel it's unnecessary "I told you so" stuff.

 

The same thing applies for "rules" in survivor football too. A lot of people have these rules like "i'll never touch a divisional road game", and then when an upset happens, they can pull the "see, I told you so" and pretend that they knew all along. But then they ignore all the divisional road games where the favorite wins, because it doesn't fit the narrative.

 

I'm not one to create 'rules' for survivor football. I evaluate each team and game on a case by case basis, and I don't care for set in stone rules. Especially ones that lend themselves to the old 'confirmation bias'.

 

You're 100% correct on the premise of this statement and that's fair.

 

Let it be known, I've gone into many threads over my time here and eaten crow.  This year, the James Robinson thread was the most glaring example.  I was a CT25 (now CT34) truther, and I was as wrong as you can be.  I do agree in large though about your point and the people in this thread though.

 

As for the rules... you should consider them.  They've saved me big time in Survivor Leagues over the years.  Of course the rule isn't 100% every time, but when you avoid and it happens, you win your survivor league (2 years when the Hawks lost to the pitiful Rams on the road come to mind).  And the coach being fired thing is something that caused me to win as well one year.  Dolphins got some meathead head coach, think he was promoted TE coach or something, after they fired whoever it was back then the game before.  They defeated the Patriots as 14+ point dogs.  

 

I don't win every year, but the years I win it's largely cause of the rules I've found / built over the years and adhering to them.  

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Last year taking the Panthers over the Bucs on TNF is the one that sticks in my craw in terms of the divisional favorites thing.

Logical brain says, "the plural of anecdote is not data."

Lizard brain says, "hell if I'm taking a divisional game favorite, the stove is hot."

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