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2020 SURVIVOR POOL THREAD


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37 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Appreciate the data.

One rule I do have currently, and am open to dispelling, is west coast favorites traveling to the east for one o'clock games.  Have anything on that?

 

It's real for gambling purposes dealing with spreads IMO, it's definitely helped me over the years.  I often fade those games more than play them though.

 

With Survivor Leagues though, it matters a bit less I've found though. 

 

If the Hawks go play the Jets I'm not fading them in a Survivor League, Hawks still gonna win, but if you're giving me 13.5 points on the Jets, I may be interested in playing that line.  

 

This is just my humble yet cocky experience though.  I'm no word press blogger, I'll give you that right now.

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You do what you feel is best, but I have a rule to never touch ROAD DIVISION RIVALS unless Vegas shows the spread as 10+.   This has generally served me well.

Herbert should smoke this team but if its one coach who would lose to the Jets, it is Anthony Lynn.

You had me til MIA, now we can no longer be friends.

31 minutes ago, AngryBeavers said:

I have a feeling that Cincy is coming to play on Sunday. Balt off of the KC embarassment.  Cin playing with confidence. I hear you... so.. if not SF or Bal, then who?

I guess my next choice is seahags, but.... 


Cardinals over the Jets? That’s probably the only one and it runs a big risk, but Cardinals are bound to bounce back lol.

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To anyone in leagues with multiple picks at some point in the season: does it change your strategy at all?

 

For example, I have multiple picks starting week 13 and it means I feel like I need to take more risks with some of my picks, like taking CLE in week 3 and possibly HOU this week. When you have 22 teams to pick, you're gonna have to take your shots on teams like the Dolphins, the Raiders, and the Vikings at some point in the season

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2 hours ago, atrium said:

To anyone in leagues with multiple picks at some point in the season: does it change your strategy at all?

 

For example, I have multiple picks starting week 13 and it means I feel like I need to take more risks with some of my picks, like taking CLE in week 3 and possibly HOU this week. When you have 22 teams to pick, you're gonna have to take your shots on teams like the Dolphins, the Raiders, and the Vikings at some point in the season

if you are in a large league or one with multiple picks, you will need to take some chances on value teams.  I think Houston this week is as good as any and a good spot to take some risk.

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17 hours ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Even so...is it the right week to use the Ravens given Lamar missed a day or two of practice?  I know, the Ravens could start a cardboard cutout of Elvis Grbac and still beat the Bengals, but Mixon looked alive last week...maybe Burrow is beginning to figure it out?

Cowboys and Steelers I totally get if you've got some chalk upset hedge.  Although you can't love that Tyron is done and the Boys defense is so horrible, it's the Giants, understood.


The Ravens don’t have another matchup nearly as good as this until Weeks 15 & 16.

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2 hours ago, SkinsChargersFan said:


The Ravens don’t have another matchup nearly as good as this until Weeks 15 & 16.

I'm in a pool large enough where I'm fairly certain that I'll need a pick in weeks 15 and 16, but your mileage may vary.

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9 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

I'm in a pool large enough where I'm fairly certain that I'll need a pick in weeks 15 and 16, but your mileage may vary.


Week 15 I’ll have Green Bay over Carolina.

 

Week 16 is a little trickier. Chargers over Broncos? Texans over Bengals?

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41 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

I'm in a pool large enough where I'm fairly certain that I'll need a pick in weeks 15 and 16, but your mileage may vary.


My pool is very large as well and typically goes to the end of the season, but given the unpredictable nature of this season, I think saving a team for Week 16 is a fool’s errand.

 

But to each his own.

 

 

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36 minutes ago, tpat30 said:


Week 15 I’ll have Green Bay over Carolina.

 

Week 16 is a little trickier. Chargers over Broncos? Texans over Bengals?


Chargers, Texans, Chiefs, Saints or Browns could all be options depending on who you have left.

 

Of that list, the only team I’ve used so far is the Browns.

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25 minutes ago, SkinsChargersFan said:


My pool is very large as well and typically goes to the end of the season, but given the unpredictable nature of this season, I think saving a team for Week 16 is a fool’s errand.

 

But to each his own.

 

 

Broadly speaking, I'd agree with you.  But I'm also fairly certain it would take a lot of unforseen events for the Ravens not to be useful then.  And there are a few teams I like just as well this week, and Lamar missing a couple practices is concerning to me, as does Mixon playing as well as he did last week.

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I think the Jags will win that game but I’m not willing to risk 6500 on it or whatever your total pool is worth. 

4 hours ago, Rotocious said:

I really want to take The Jaguars this week.  How crazy am I? And why?

 

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25 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Broadly speaking, I'd agree with you.  But I'm also fairly certain it would take a lot of unforseen events for the Ravens not to be useful then.  And there are a few teams I like just as well this week

Agree with this. The value of the Ravens and Chiefs isn't that they're usable in a certain specific week, it's that they're usable in weeks where no other team is. They're good teams to have in your back pocket when the pickings get slim. If there are other viable options in any given week, I almost never go with the top tier teams because it handicaps your flexibility in the future.

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21 minutes ago, Cdub2k said:

I think the Jags will win that game but I’m not willing to risk 6500 on it or whatever your total pool is worth. 

 

 

Its survivor pool the person who wins it always took some crazy risk early in the season.

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Just now, Rotocious said:

 

Its survivor pool the person who wins it always took some crazy risk early in the season.

The person who wins it successfully avoids the landmines throughout the season that wipe out half the pool. That doesn't require picking Vegas underdogs which is just a terrible strategy in survivor football.

 

But if you're really a believer in the Jags, then go for it!

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2 minutes ago, atrium said:

The person who wins it successfully avoids the landmines throughout the season that wipe out half the pool. That doesn't require picking Vegas underdogs which is just a terrible strategy in survivor football.

 

But if you're really a believer in the Jags, then go for it!

 

They opened at getting a TD... thats already down to 5 and looking to be going lower.

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7 minutes ago, Rotocious said:

 

Its survivor pool the person who wins it always took some crazy risk early in the season.


You don’t need to take crazy risks... you need to take calculated ones.

 

Taking a 5.5pt underdog on the road against a team who just fired their coach (who it seems was universally disliked) strikes me as crazy... not calculated.

 

In fact I’d argue that taking the Texans is a far more calculated risk this week... although one that I most likely won’t take.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Rotocious said:

 

Its survivor pool the person who wins it always took some crazy risk early in the season.

Excellent point. I don’t think the pick itself is crazy. I feel like it’s a pickem game so in regular betting formats I’d bet the Jaguars and gladly take the points as a nice cushion in case they don’t win. It’s a nice contrarian pick in pools where you pick all the games. 

What’s crazy about it is that there are so many better picks out there. And you have no cushion if they lose. Even if you win you merely advance to Week 6 with everybody else. The risk/reward isn’t there unless you believe that all the heavy favorites all lose this week. There are 9 teams favorite to win by more than 7.5 or more points this week: Ravens, Chiefs, Cowboys, Patriots, 49ers, Steelers, Cardinals, Seahawks, Saints. ai think a couple of those teams will lose but I think at least 5 will win.

 

 

 

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