Dirtywater97

Joshua Kelley 2020 Outlook

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26 minutes ago, alleyce said:


They had Melvin Gordon last year so he was 3rd string so it’s not fair to compare carries from the previous years for Jackson vs this year for Kelley. Also with Rivers they were more pass happy in general.  
 

I’m not saying they will stop pounding the rock but it’s extremely rare for 1 RB to get 20 touches and the other 25 in the same game. I don’t expect the #2 back to get that amount of touches going forward whether it ends up being Kelley or Jackson. 
 

I liked the volume they gave Kelley as well. He out touched Ekeler which is good for him. But he averaged 2.8 a carry. So I believe the reason he got all those carries was to keep Ekelers carries down and they have no other back to spell him and not because he was extremely effective and they were rolling with the hot hand. They’ve never given Ekeler more than the 19 carries he received in week 1, which includes weeks he was the guy during Gordon’s absence.
 

So my assumption is when Jackson gets back it’s going to eat from Kelley’s workload. But who knows. My initial response was just about ROS value Ekeler vs Kelley which I think is an easy answer. 

 

I definitely agree with you on ROS Ekeler > Kelley. But my point about the volume is that JJ has literally never been involved as Kelley was in only his second pro game.

Melvin Gordon holdout was last year so JJ played the first 3 games without him. His carry counts were 6, 7, 5. In the 2018 games he played while Gordon was hurt his carry counts were 7, 8, 7, and 16 (career high ran for 58 yards). Through 2 games Kelley has 6 more carries than JJ had the entire year last year (which again includes 3 games without Gordon). 

I guess my point is that Jackson might eat into Kelley's snaps a little, but he's never been given a lot of carries, he's small and banged up. Kelley is the best guy to pound between the tackles and at the goal line. I think that role is safe and it's just as likely that JJ is phased out and/or back to his RB3 role he had when it was Gordon/Ekeler. 

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Not too worried about the Y/C, since it's such a small sample. Break loose for one long one and he's well above 4 per carry, and he's currently right around Taylor, Jacobs, and Henry for the year. Obviously the volume is the reason for excitement. 2018 MGIII here we come!!!

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I am trying to pick two out of the following four players: Jerick McKinnon Darius Slayton Joshua Kelly and David Johnson.

i know this is more of an AC type of question but as a general ranking do you think given matchups the Joshua Kelly is a must start over and established running back with a bad matchup such as David Johnson?

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7 minutes ago, CanaBuc said:

I am trying to pick two out of the following four players: Jerick McKinnon Darius Slayton Joshua Kelly and David Johnson.

i know this is more of an AC type of question but as a general ranking do you think given matchups the Joshua Kelly is a must start over and established running back with a bad matchup such as David Johnson?

I'm starting him over DJ with confidence. DJ's likely going to have another dud like last week vs. BAL, while I like Kelley's chances of scoring vs. CAR.

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5 hours ago, Soafanforlife said:

 

I make a ton of ironic and unironic posts around here, but that can't possible be your team... wow. My condolences. I hope you're not serious. 

Sadly I am very serious that that is my team (Mike Davis RB2 now though) -- Condolences are welcome.

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any concerns with justin jackson coming back from injury this week and taking significant touches? 

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Just now, dayvidhong said:

any concerns with justin jackson coming back from injury this week and taking significant touches? 

Absolutely.  I’d say Ekeler owners are pretty nervous right now.

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14 minutes ago, dayvidhong said:

any concerns with justin jackson coming back from injury this week and taking significant touches? 

I don't see why JJ would just come back and start taking significant touches. not yet anyway

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1 minute ago, cdd10 said:

I don't see why JJ would just come back and start taking significant touches. not yet anyway

  • Chargers RB Justin Jackson (quad) has yet to resume practicing. 

    Jackson remains without a timetable for a return. With Joshua Kelley putting a stranglehold on No. 2 duties in Jackson's absence, Jackson is safely droppable in re-draft leagues. 

    Sep 24, 2020, 4:52 PM ET
     
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16 minutes ago, dayvidhong said:

any concerns with justin jackson coming back from injury this week and taking significant touches? 

 

Not likely to be a problem anytime soon...

 

Chargers RB Justin Jackson (quad) has yet to resume practicing. 

Jackson remains without a timetable for a return. With Joshua Kelley putting a stranglehold on No. 2 duties in Jackson's absence, Jackson is safely droppable in re-draft leagues. 

Sep 24, 2020, 4:52 PM ET
 
 
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16 hours ago, jpark211 said:

Really can't decided if I should start Kelley over Mixon this week... 

Debating this myself ha

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I as well am considering putting him in over Mixon. I feel like Mixon deserves one more week to prove himself before getting benched for a free agent... but... IDK.

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6 minutes ago, drisser said:

I as well am considering putting him in over Mixon. I feel like Mixon deserves one more week to prove himself before getting benched for a free agent... but... IDK.

starting both

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31 minutes ago, munygon2 said:

Any worries about Jackson cutting into Kelly's workload?

 

 

I really don't think so. Jackson got his chance last season when MGIII held out and the most carries he had during that span was 7. Kelley had 23 in his 2nd NFL game.

 

Also, he can't seem to stay healthy. I see Jackson in a Royce Freeman type of role.

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5 hours ago, drisser said:

I as well am considering putting him in over Mixon. I feel like Mixon deserves one more week to prove himself before getting benched for a free agent... but... IDK.

That would be ridiculous -- please don't do that to yourself. Mixon is guaranteed 20 touches going into a cake walk matchup. Kelley is still the no.2 and we have no idea how much longer Chargers will be able to pound the rock like this. I love Kelley as a bench guy in case Ekler goes down, but there's not likely enough touches to go around going forward. Under 60 total yards for Kelley this week, While Mixon goes for 100 and a tuddy. 

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2 hours ago, munygon2 said:

Any worries about Jackson cutting into Kelly's workload?

 

 

Nope. Its pretty clear Kelley is filling the Gordon role and JJ certainly isnt taking touches from Ekeler, their starting RB. JJ may see the field for a handful of snaps to spell one of the two, but that's about it. 

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JJ won't play this week, Fire up Kelly as your RB2/Flex vs a very bad team. 16/80, TD

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Justin Jackson is a nobody, if eats into anybody's touches it's going to be Ekeler.

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