DerrickHenrysCleats

James Robinson 2020 Outlook

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9 minutes ago, collucho said:

Moving forward...last night was his floor. 

Exaggeration aside his floor and ceiling have been raised after that pass catching performance.

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10 minutes ago, collucho said:

Moving forward...last night was his floor. 

 

4 minutes ago, Magoo said:

Sigh. Just because the snap share was low and it was a negative game script doesn’t mean 27 points is his floor. 
 

This is a very common point chasey / recency bias mistake FF players make. Every game is different. JRob has one of the better floors in the game because (besides the fact that he’s good) he’s the primary ball carrier. When Chark is back there won’t be as many short passes which is how he popped last night. Miami completely shut down the WR core and he benefited. 
 

I love the guy and he’s clearly high end RB2 at worst but last night was not the floor.

 

... aaaaaaand WHOOOOOSH!

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5 minutes ago, Magoo said:

Sigh. Just because the snap share was low and it was a negative game script doesn’t mean 27 points is his floor. 
 

This is a very common point chasey / recency bias mistake FF players make. Every game is different. JRob has one of the better floors in the game because (besides the fact that he’s good) he’s the primary ball carrier. When Chark is back there won’t be as many short passes which is how he popped last night. Miami completely shut down the WR core and he benefited. 
 

I love the guy and he’s clearly high end RB2 at worst but last night was not the floor.

 

I'm pretty sure he was being sarcastic. 

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5 minutes ago, Magoo said:

Sigh. Just because the snap share was low and it was a negative game script doesn’t mean 27 points is his floor. 
 

This is a very common point chasey / recency bias mistake FF players make. Every game is different. JRob has one of the better floors in the game because (besides the fact that he’s good) he’s the primary ball carrier. When Chark is back there won’t be as many short passes which is how he popped last night. Miami completely shut down the WR core and he benefited. 
 

I love the guy and he’s clearly high end RB2 at worst but last night was not the floor.

Knew I'd get one kid riled up with that comment.

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4 minutes ago, Magoo said:

Sigh. Just because the snap share was low and it was a negative game script doesn’t mean 27 points is his floor. 
 

This is a very common point chasey / recency bias mistake FF players make. Every game is different. JRob has one of the better floors in the game because (besides the fact that he’s good) he’s the primary ball carrier. When Chark is back there won’t be as many short passes which is how he popped last night. Miami completely shut down the WR core and he benefited. 
 

I love the guy and he’s clearly high end RB2 at worst but last night was not the floor.

 

You heard the man last night was his floor!! The legend of James Robinson continues to grow exponentially!!  In full PPR it was 30 points.  Next week 42 points will likely be his new floor. 

 

Just ride this cat to an easy championship and never look back!! #PUOTY

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Few too many people always trying to be just a little too funny and a little too clever. Can we just talk about football here and leave the snarky, sarcastic attention-grabbing for a more appropriate forum? Maybe something to do with middle school?

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UDFA RBs probably have the easiest path towards becoming a multi-year starter out of all the skill positions. I'm pretty sure Tony Romo and Casey Keenum are the only two UDFA QB's who have started more than a season's worth of games over the last 20 years, and only Romo was ever really a fantasy starter. But with RBs it's a little bit different -- everyone knows about huge names like Priest Holmes, Arian Foster and F-Jax, but then you have guys like Thomas Rawls and CJA who weren't necessarily superstars, but grew into starters who you could play in fantasy with confidence.

Over the long term, it does seem like UDFA RB's have a shorter leash when they start fumbling or missing blitzes, as the team has no draft capital invested in them (and usually someone else with a higher pedigree lower on the depth chart). But JRob's position is pretty secure for this year. Why would you start giving Chris Thompson more snaps after he looked horrible and let Minshew get blown up on at least one egregious play?

I also think we may see a lot of late-round and UDFA rookies shine this year, just because the teams couldn't do their normal due diligence because of COVID. I feel comfortable with calling JRob an every-week RB2 unless he starts really looking out of his league as the season goes on.

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Robinson is on pace for 229 carries and 53 receptions for 282 touches if he plays a full 16 games. I know in the small picture, we'd love to see more touches each week because that means more points in that week. But big picture, I actually like this ~18 touch per week pace because we want this kid to avoid the proverbial rookie wall. 

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2 minutes ago, JAG_challam said:

Few too many people always trying to be just a little too funny and a little too clever. Can we just talk about football here and leave the snarky, sarcastic attention-grabbing for a more appropriate forum? Maybe something to do with middle school?

C'mon guys grow up! This is an internet forum for Pete's sake!!!! No room for humor here.

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Started the week as the RB 12 in both standard and PPR. He may stay in the top 8 for the first half of the season with that schedule now.

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8 minutes ago, ohio#1eaglesfan said:

Didn’t see anyone post his highlights yet. He sure has some violent cuts and a burst that leaves guys diving for him or straight up falling down. You can see it on his first catch in this video. He makes two impressive cuts. The first one has the defender slip and fall and the next has the defender over pursue and dive for him grabbing at air. I have seen guys dive and miss on several of his runs this year as he just bursts right by them. 

You’re right ohio#1eaglesfan. Let’s talk about something cool like his highlights. 

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4 minutes ago, collucho said:

C'mon guys grow up! This is an internet forum for Pete's sake!!!! No room for humor here.

You're pretty funny. Ever consider contributing to the conversation?

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4 minutes ago, Jwook said:

Started the week as the RB 12 in both standard and PPR. He may stay in the top 8 for the first half of the season with that schedule now.

 

He was the RB15 in my half PPR league...definitely will be higher than that now, lol. He almost doubled his points from the first two weeks. 

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1 minute ago, Flyman75 said:

 

He was the RB15 in my half PPR league...definitely will be higher than that now, lol. He almost doubled his points from the first two weeks. 

He did double them in full PPR - in standard scoring he's coming off a slightly lesser week, but 2 TDs are still 2 TDs - that's good in any scoring lol

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2 minutes ago, ponchsox said:

I haven't been this excited about a player in fantasy in a long time.

 

Same here. And if I'm being honest, it's partly because I picked him up as a FA preseason a couple of days after Fournette was cut. So he's giving me an opportunity to gloat, LOL...especially to that one owner who was convinced he grabbed the Jags' replacement for Fournette, Ozigbo. 

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Those highlights are extraordinarily encouraging. A couple of very sharp catches, that fantastic bit of work to get 15 yards near his own end zone, hitting the gaps, making headway when there aren't any. Then the piece de resistance - shrugging off Van Noy, taking the solid hit, and carrying on for 10 or more yards as if nothing had happened. So good.

 

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20 minutes ago, collucho said:

Knew I'd get one kid riled up with that comment.

Ah the old troll immunity defense. Well played.

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Something that I haven't seen yet is any props to the Jags OL. They were being labeled as a bottom-tier OL, but to me they've looked very good opening holes for JRob and giving Minshew enough time to let the play develop/allow for Robinson (or Thompson) to leak out of the backfield for dump-offs. 

 

Jawann Taylor was a 1st round talent at RT and was strong as a run blocker last year. Cam Robinson has the rep as a below average LT, but he's looked really good to me through 3 games (can't say I watched much JAX last year). Norwell was a big money FA acquisition that is a road grader, and Cann/Linder are both stable vets filling out the middle. 

 

Through the 3 games I've watched I've been very impressed. As a Mixon owner and truther, it pains me when he gets met in the backfield on half of his carries. For JRob, he seems to have ample time to get up to speed and make plays, and his OL has been a huge part of that through 3 games.

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8 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

Same here. And if I'm being honest, it's partly because I picked him up as a FA preseason a couple of days after Fournette was cut. So he's giving me an opportunity to gloat, LOL...especially to that one owner who was convinced he grabbed the Jags' replacement for Fournette, Ozigbo. 

I too scooped him as a FA just before the season and waivers started. The news coming out of JAX training camp indicated pretty clearly that JRob was showing well and would get a shot. Kid's a great real and fantasy football story!

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I think Ryquell or Ozigbo will get a handful of touches when one is healthy.  As much as I'd love for Robinson to get max touches all year I don't see them pumping a rookie RB with 20+ touches a game  when they have no chance at the playoffs and they have other serviceable options.

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