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2020 Buy Low/Sell High Thread

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3 minutes ago, JuanSuarez said:

I would try to sell high Chris Carson. He's in a full timeshare and it's a matter of when, not if, he will get hurt again.

While watching him ball out I added Hyde to my watch list....might be able to pick him up w/out wasting a waiver pick.

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1 minute ago, Brye said:

I wouldent trade Jacobs for Thomas here’s why......

 

1. Jacobs is going to catch 50+ catches this year easily.  Was targeted all 4 times In the second half and he didn’t disappoint.  He juked their LB out of his cleats, and is one of the not reasons they scored on their last td drive.

 

2. RB is scarce this year, look how many committees their is.  Jacobs is one of the true bell cow RBS left in the league.  
 

3.  Emanuel sanders is in town and long be hold  he’s going to cut into Thomas’s targets. As the saints haven’t had decent WR 2 opposite Michael Thomas In years.  

only reason I bring some sort of disagreement here is look at Emmanuel sanders history of injury. Having someone talented who ends up on the sideline only boosts MT reps. Jacobs looked great today, but after all the talk last year Id be cautious on how this plays into the next couple games where game script doesnt favor Jacobs 

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1 minute ago, meverett85 said:

While watching him ball out I added Hyde to my watch list....might be able to pick him up w/out wasting a waiver pick.

yeah but given how SEA are wanting to be a more balanced attack this year, if Carson went down I wouldnt be suprised if Hyde was just a first and 2nd down back with maybe goaline work. His upside is only in his reps if Carson goes down 

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2 minutes ago, JacobThunder15 said:

Im agreeing with you here, Ertz will see the reps just because any PHI WRs can never stay healthy but after today, the oline can barely hold for Wentz to get off a good read. If you can sell Ertz for even Mark Andrews I would do that in a heartbeat

Agree. Seems like an Ertz owner might want to package him with a 2 for 1 in a trade at this point. Let's say like an Ertz + a lottery ticket for a RB2/WR2 (MAB a Connor or a Chark)

Then just grab Goedert.

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5 minutes ago, JacobThunder15 said:

only reason I bring some sort of disagreement here is look at Emmanuel sanders history of injury. Having someone talented who ends up on the sideline only boosts MT reps. Jacobs looked great today, but after all the talk last year Id be cautious on how this plays into the next couple games where game script doesnt favor Jacobs 

Hey if Derrick Henry can be a top 5 than Jacobs can for sure, the raiders have the best receiving corpS they’ve had in a long time.  Jacobs causes the most missed tackles last year as a rookie and he will easily catch more passes than Henry this year by a huge margin

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Just now, Brye said:

Hey if Derrick Henry can be a top 5 than Jacobs can for sure, the raiders have the best receiving corpS they’ve had in a long time.  Jacobs causes the most missed tackles last year as a rookie and he will easily catch more passes than Henry this year by a huge margin

Yes but Jacobs already missed games last year. Henry did not. Jacobs also isnt 6'3 bowling ball that the offense is around (based on the track record of last year), things could be different. I would just limit my expectations for now. 

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6 minutes ago, JacobThunder15 said:

Yes but Jacobs already missed games last year. Henry did not. Jacobs also isnt 6'3 bowling ball that the offense is around (based on the track record of last year), things could be different. I would just limit my expectations for now. 

Lets agree too disagree .   Gruden is most definitely going to Unleash josh Jacobs 

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53 minutes ago, JuanSuarez said:

I would try to sell high Chris Carson. He's in a full timeshare and it's a matter of when, not if, he will get hurt again.

 

- He's the lead back

- He's not in a full time share

- He really wasn't needed at all today because Russell was shredding them through the air

- They're being cautious with him because of his season-ending hip injury from last year, which is understandable

- So yes, Hyde might be more involved than normal early on in the season, but make no mistake, this is Carson's backfield

 

If anything I would point out the low touches today to the owner in your league to try and acquire him.

 

He's the lead back on an offense lead by Russell Wilson with good weapons to keep defenses honest. He'll get a lot of opportunities to score and will see a majority of the red zone/goal line/passing down work.

 

I mean people were spending a top 10 pick on an unproven rookie in a similar situation in KC, but Carson was available a round or two later.

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4 hours ago, mocha4313 said:

Ertz is the sell to me

 

Goeder is just better at this point imo

 

I agree 100 percent with this !   I do not know what the future holds for Ertz but the Eagles need offensive line help.   Do not be surprised if they try and move him at some point considering Goedert is a better and younger TE

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3 hours ago, street sharks said:

 

- He's the lead back

- He's not in a full time share

- He really wasn't needed at all today because Russell was shredding them through the air

- They're being cautious with him because of his season-ending hip injury from last year, which is understandable

- So yes, Hyde might be more involved than normal early on in the season, but make no mistake, this is Carson's backfield

 

If anything I would point out the low touches today to the owner in your league to try and acquire him.

 

He's the lead back on an offense lead by Russell Wilson with good weapons to keep defenses honest. He'll get a lot of opportunities to score and will see a majority of the red zone/goal line/passing down work.

 

I mean people were spending a top 10 pick on an unproven rookie in a similar situation in KC, but Carson was available a round or two later.

I drafted Carson as my #2 RB and have no regrets. He'll eat this season as long as he stays healthy (I do have the Hyde insurance policy just in case) - but I think Hyde is only there to help keep Carson going all year.

Now, if only I could feel as good about my #1 drafted RB (Chubb)... 😕

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5 hours ago, meverett85 said:

Nobody is jumping ship after week 1, but for fun:

Sell High

 

[...]

-Godwin/Evans (Tom Brady is cooked)

[...]

 

I would buy every share of them if I can get them, but nobody is selling them and especially not high.

Brady being Toast is a nice Skip Bayless level take ;) 

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How many times have you guys been burned from overreacting after Week 1? I would wait at least 2 more weeks before you know what you have .. 

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6 minutes ago, oresteszero said:

How many times have you guys been burned from overreacting after Week 1? I would wait at least 2 more weeks before you know what you have .. 

 

especially this year.

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Buying low and selling high doesn't mean you can go buy Kenyan Drake for James Robinson and Nyheim Hines. All it means is you might be able to buy someone for a slight discount. You can probably throw together a package to move 1-3 rounds from draft positions, but that's as much movement as reasonable owners are going to be willing to go after one week. Should you want to buy low on a guy? That's entirely up to you, but the more questions there are the cheaper it's going to cost. If you wait a few weeks until the picture becomes clear you might find out you dodged a bullet, but you might also find you lost a golden opportunity. Buying low doesn't always mean you're buying someone coming off a bad game. It just means you're buying lower than what you feel their value is going to be in the coming weeks. Same for selling low - sometimes you don't want to wait a week or two for them to have a good game before pulling the plug, because one bad game can be dismissed as a fluke, but buyers are going to dry up real fast if you start trying to peddle your mid round pick who has multiple turds to start the year. It also depends whether an owner was specifically targeting their player in the draft or if they just took them because they were the 'best value'. I'm not moving from some player I reached for but if someone I was indifferent on like Gurley fell into my lap during the draft I'm not looking to dump him after week 1, but it was hardly a performance that made me reluctant to move him. Again, buying low does not mean buying for free with some scrub you picked up off the ww, but instead trying to move up a round or three from where they were drafted. Yeah, it's scary and might blow up in your face but that's exactly why you can buy slightly lower than you could a few days ago.

 

With all that said, here is a random list of guys you can probably buy low or sell high right now because I feel there are serious questions about where their value should be going forward. Your call whether you're actually buying/selling at the bottom or whether it's the first point in a trend.

 

Sammy Watkins. Why you should: #2 receiver on likely the best offense and a lot of owners are probably looking to cash in from their late round pick before it crumbles. Why you shouldn't: We've seen this before, and #2 receiver doesn't mean #2 target. 

Joe Mixon. Why you should: Ran the ball 19 times and had a couple targets. He's going to keep getting that level of work. Why you shouldn't: Slightly concerning he was largely ignored in the passing game for Giovani. Don't want to pay high prices for a 2 down back.

David Montgomery. Why you should: He's the starting running back for the Bears. Why you shouldn't: He's the starting running back for the Bears.

TY Hilton. Why you should: Rivers will sling it plenty, the team lost one of their running backs, and he tied for the lead in team targets. Why you shouldn't: It's unclear whether he's going to be THE guy as he has been before, or now just A guy Rivers will spread the ball to.

Mark Ingram. Why you should buy: He's the starting running back on an elite offense. Why you shouldn't: Terrible first week and real questions whether he's going to stay the starting running back. Doesn't catch many passes and if he's sharing red zone work his value takes a monstrous hit.

OBJ. Why you should: He got 10 targets and is probably still an elite talent. Why you shouldn't: He's immature and the team/qb aren't going to do him any favors.

Rojo. Why you should: High powered offense and he's starting. Why you shouldn't: Fournette might start stealing more work.

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19 hours ago, thebadferret said:

 

I would buy every share of them if I can get them, but nobody is selling them and especially not high.

Brady being Toast is a nice Skip Bayless level take ;) 

 

That first drive the offense actually looked nearly elite, then just fell apart completely. 

Edited by RunCMC
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Saquon Barkley? Not super low of course...but if I had say Derrick Henry maybe? Or Adams/Hopkins after those monster games. Worth checking.

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Some players here... a lot could be dropped in league size or players that strengthen the bench

 

Buy brandin cooks- #2 in targets

sell Chris Carson- timeshare
 

buy Antonio Gipson 
buy DJ Moore or someone willing to sell

buy nick Chubb- they will be better. Hunt isn’t taking over there

buy Tyler boyd- he will be okay

Sell mostert- I just think it becomes a timeshare  his value won’t be any higher than right now  
buy- Evan Engram. Just played MNF  #2 in targets still on the night. Played a tough Steelers defense  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, PackerBacker555 said:

Some players here... a lot could be dropped in league size or players that strengthen the bench

 

Buy brandin cooks- #2 in targets

sell Chris Carson- timeshare
 

buy Antonio Gipson 
buy DJ Moore or someone willing to sell

buy nick Chubb- they will be better. Hunt isn’t taking over there

buy Tyler boyd- he will be okay

Sell mostert- I just think it becomes a timeshare  his value won’t be any higher than right now  
buy- Evan Engram. Just played MNF  #2 in targets still on the night. Played a tough Steelers defense  

I disagree with 100% of your takes. 

Isn't it funny how fantasy players can have complete opposite opinions on players, but at the same time we both could easily go on to win our league(s). 

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On 9/14/2020 at 12:06 AM, meverett85 said:

Nobody is jumping ship after week 1, but for fun:

Sell High

-Ekeler (Josh Kelley)

 

 

-

 

 

How do you sell high on ekeler after that week ... It's opposite imo ... If you have ekeler and don't want him you wait or if you want him than maybe you can buy low ... See if you can get him for a lower tier rb that had a big week or something.  

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Just now, dnorma2 said:

 

How do you sell high on ekeler after that week ... It's opposite imo ... If you have ekeler and don't want him you wait or if you want him than maybe you can buy low ... See if you can get him for a lower tier rb that had a big week or something.  

Selling high just means selling at whatever you think their peak is. If you think the quarterback situation is going to seriously hurt his value, now is the time to sell high. If you wait for his value to rebound and he has another bad week, then what? His value takes another big hit. Do you end up holding him half the season waiting for it to rebound? 

Selling him for Chris Carson would be considered selling low based on their preseason ADP, but do you think a Carson owner would do that deal? Nobody is dumping him for Benny Snell, but a Drake? Sanders, Taylor, Gordon?  Especially if you threw in a small sweetener? Or some other position? I'm hard pressed to say you shouldn't sell for something like that if the offer came your way.

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It is extremely difficult to make trades after week 1.  You basically have to overpay since the instinct to stand pat is so strong.

And no one is panicking and giving up on their stud players after week 1.

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Akers is probably the best buy low option right now, I'm sure there are a few owners who will have no patience in general, and then his week 1 will put them over the edge. 

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Sell High:

Juju SS

 

Find the Robert Woods owner in your league and offer Juju straight up NOW. Do not even wait.

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Could JT actually be a sell-high? I'm excited for him like everyone else, but I think I'd be tempted if I was offered a proven RB1 for him.

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