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2020 Buy Low/Sell High Thread

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Chubb is a buy low, Hunt is a sell high.

I think this backfield is going to be a nightmare to predict, and the two backs will inevitably vulture each other when it's least helpful to your lineup. 

 

But I also think Chubb is worth more than what some owners will sell him for, and Hunt is not worth what some owners will buy him for.

Package a flex RB with an extra stash player and upgrade to Chubb. Sell Hunt and an extra stash player and upgrade to a legit RB2.

Edited by JAG_challam

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5 minutes ago, JAG_challam said:

I doubt Thomas or Henry owners are selling low, but good luck if they are.

I doubt it as well ... But sometimes ff owners panic early especially if they lost week 1 ... They may take security ... It can't hurt to inquire about asking prices from early injured players like kittle thomas golliday and sutton owners to name a few 

Edited by dnorma2

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3 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

I'd be buying Kareem Hunt

Would you start him over Chubb the rest of the way? If the answer is no, then I think Chubb is the buy low and Hunt a sell high.

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31 minutes ago, dnorma2 said:

I doubt it as well ... But sometimes ff owners panic early especially if they lost week 1 ... They may take security ... It can't hurt to inquire about asking prices from early injured players like kittle thomas golliday and sutton owners to name a few 

What kind of offers do you throw at the Thomas owner? His injury is very likely to get worse if he tries to play through it. What version of MT are you getting, a low end WR1

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3 minutes ago, JAG_challam said:

Would you start him over Chubb the rest of the way? If the answer is no, then I think Chubb is the buy low and Hunt a sell high.

 

Yes

 

The same way that Hunt was the preferred ppr fantasy back upon his return from suspension last year.

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8 minutes ago, franchize3 said:

David Johnson a sell-high?

Yes, but you cant expect him to be trash next week. He can be good for 5 weeks then get injured

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7 hours ago, dnorma2 said:

 

How do you sell high on ekeler after that week ... It's opposite imo ... If you have ekeler and don't want him you wait or if you want him than maybe you can buy low ... See if you can get him for a lower tier rb that had a big week or something.  

 

They are assuming he stays this bad or gets worse and want to sell while people believe he'll bounce back.

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1 hour ago, Pooskay said:

Evan Ingram comes to mind (buy low).

 

Haha.

Engram will be a Bust all season.

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1 hour ago, this guy right here said:

 

They are assuming he stays this bad or gets worse and want to sell while people believe he'll bounce back.

 

That's still not selling high lol ... It's selling at a loss ... The name of this thread is buy low sell high ... Not cut your losses /overpay thread .. someone evidently should start one though. 

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2 hours ago, JacobThunder15 said:

What kind of offers do you throw at the Thomas owner? His injury is very likely to get worse if he tries to play through it. What version of MT are you getting, a low end WR1

 

Inquire ... The saints may rest him another week before the gb game ... Ask the thomas owner what's he wants ... Just information ...

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8 hours ago, CooL said:

You have a different definition of “selling high” than I think most do. “Selling for whatever you can get” is equivalent to selling high? Huh? If you sell Ekeler now, whose value is perceived to be less than what it was on draft night, that’s the very definition of selling low. 
If you don’t believe in Ekeler- and Lynn’s words about how there won’t be as many targets for RBs in the new scheme are very concerning- then I agree you should sell. But at this point, it would be a “cut your losses and get out” because you perceive the value to be decreasing as the season progresses. You take your lumps and eat the loss when you have to trade him for a David Johnson (whose owner in that scenario would be selling high on DJ). 
When you think of buy low, sell high, it is the same as how you would do in the stock market which is likely where the expression came from.

I did not say sell for whatever you can get. You of course have to aim your shots instead of just taking anything and everything. But as far as the selling high/selling low, it's a distinction without a difference for fantasy purposes. This is not the stock market - we don't need to be that nuanced. Selling high or selling low is the same thing here. You're moving on from a guy you feel is currently at their high point from now through the end of the season.

I'm not saying whether you should sell from Ekeler. I wasn't a fan coming into the season so I have a skewed perspective. There are some very concerning flags here but imo they were mostly all there coming into the year. He at least has the Chiefs coming up and that should offer lots of chances at points.

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15 minutes ago, AnonymousRob said:

I did not say sell for whatever you can get. You of course have to aim your shots instead of just taking anything and everything. But as far as the selling high/selling low, it's a distinction without a difference for fantasy purposes. This is not the stock market - we don't need to be that nuanced. Selling high or selling low is the same thing here. You're moving on from a guy you feel is currently at their high point from now through the end of the season.

I'm not saying whether you should sell from Ekeler. I wasn't a fan coming into the season so I have a skewed perspective. There are some very concerning flags here but imo they were mostly all there coming into the year. He at least has the Chiefs coming up and that should offer lots of chances at points.

It's really not the same, and I am dumbfounded that the concept seems to be poorly understood by several here.  But we will have to agree to disagree.

If you sell Ekeler after his week 1 performance, that is not a sell high.  You're telling people to "sell high" on him and that's exactly what you're not doing.  You're selling him for less than his perceived value, so that's a sell low.  But if that's how you feel, then it's all good for you.  I'd submit that somebody would be "Buying Low" on Ekeler if they got him from you and you would be getting the short end of the stick.

1 hour ago, dnorma2 said:

 

That's still not selling high lol ... It's selling at a loss ... The name of this thread is buy low sell high ... Not cut your losses /overpay thread .. someone evidently should start one though. 

This guy gets it.  I like that … "Cut your losses / Overpay", lol.  Because that's what a lot of people here seem to think this is.  

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23 minutes ago, AnonymousRob said:

I'm not saying whether you should sell from Ekeler. 

 

2 minutes ago, CooL said:

...You're telling people to "sell high" on him and that's exactly what you're not doing...

If you are able to misconstrue something written out as plain as day I suppose I shouldn't feign surprise at your inability to grasp some nuance. 

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10 hours ago, AnonymousRob said:

Selling high just means selling at whatever you think their peak is. If you think the quarterback situation is going to seriously hurt his value, now is the time to sell high. If you wait for his value to rebound and he has another bad week, then what? His value takes another big hit. Do you end up holding him half the season waiting for it to rebound? 

Selling him for Chris Carson would be considered selling low based on their preseason ADP, but do you think a Carson owner would do that deal? Nobody is dumping him for Benny Snell, but a Drake? Sanders, Taylor, Gordon?  Especially if you threw in a small sweetener? Or some other position? I'm hard pressed to say you shouldn't sell for something like that if the offer came your way.

 

35 minutes ago, AnonymousRob said:

I'm not saying whether you should sell from Ekeler. I wasn't a fan coming into the season so I have a skewed perspective. There are some very concerning flags here but imo they were mostly all there coming into the year. He at least has the Chiefs coming up and that should offer lots of chances at points.

Sigh.  Are we really getting into internet forum nuances?  I'm not in your head, so I don't really know if you believe you should sell Ekeler.  If you write something that is suggesting that if the QB situation worries someone, then they should sell high and get out while you can, is that not advice?  So do you not really believe that Ekeler has a worrisome situation and that somebody should get out?  Or are you merely stating a hypothetical and basically letting somebody make up their mind? 

The name of the thread is BUY LOW / SELL HIGH.  Selling Ekeler at this point is not SELL HIGH, no matter how you spin it.

Corey Davis would be a SELL HIGH.  He was expected to do nothing, he looked like the first read.  We likely don't think this will continue since AJ Brown is the better talent.  So SELL HIGH on Corey and see if somebody will bite, only to then watch him turn into the pumpkin that he is like he has been his whole career.

Christian Kirk would be a BUY LOW.  He had 1 reception for 0 yards on 5 targets.  Hopkins was a target monster.  But Fitz and Edmonds also got 5 targets, so Kirk was in the group of the next potential second receiver on this team.  He had the tenth highest depth of target in the league.  He had 35% of his team's air yards (Hopkins was over 50%) which means he got almost all of the remaining air yards on the team.

Odell is a BUY LOW.  He caught 3 balls for 22 yards.  Baker is Baker and looks awful.  The team once again is looking like they'll go nowhere.  But OBJ got ten targets, which is huge.  If he continues to be heavily targeted like this, his fantasy points will come.  

TJ Hockensen is a potential SELL HIGH.  We saw this last year where he exploded on to the scene, then did nothing.  I really feel like a lot of his usage was due to Golladay's absence.  Once Kenny G makes it back on the field, do we see Stafford forget about this guy again?  There will be Golladay, Marvin Jones, even that cockroach Danny Amendola...that's a lot of mouths to feed.  There's a lot of these athletic high upside tight ends that are probably available.  OJ Howard is one.  If I could upgrade somewhere else by selling off Hock, I'd do it.

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1 minute ago, CooL said:

The name of the thread is BUY LOW / SELL HIGH.  Selling Ekeler at this point is not SELL HIGH, no matter how you spin it.

Corey Davis would be a SELL HIGH.  He was expected to do nothing, he looked like the first read.  We likely don't think this will continue since AJ Brown is the better talent.  So SELL HIGH on Corey and see if somebody will bite, only to then watch him turn into the pumpkin that he is like he has been his whole career.

Christian Kirk would be a BUY LOW.  He had 1 reception for 0 yards on 5 targets.  Hopkins was a target monster.  But Fitz and Edmonds also got 5 targets, so Kirk was in the group of the next potential second receiver on this team.  He had the tenth highest depth of target in the league.  He had 35% of his team's air yards (Hopkins was over 50%) which means he got almost all of the remaining air yards on the team.

Odell is a BUY LOW.  He caught 3 balls for 22 yards.  Baker is Baker and looks awful.  The team once again is looking like they'll go nowhere.  But OBJ got ten targets, which is huge.  If he continues to be heavily targeted like this, his fantasy points will come.  

TJ Hockensen is a potential SELL HIGH.  We saw this last year where he exploded on to the scene, then did nothing.  I really feel like a lot of his usage was due to Golladay's absence.  Once Kenny G makes it back on the field, do we see Stafford forget about this guy again?  There will be Golladay, Marvin Jones, even that cockroach Danny Amendola...that's a lot of mouths to feed.  There's a lot of these athletic high upside tight ends that are probably available.  OJ Howard is one.  If I could upgrade somewhere else by selling off Hock, I'd do it.

What you, and many others, seem to be forgetting is perspective. Let's just focus on Corey Davis. If you think he's going to be a bum like he has in the past, he's of course a sell high. If you think he's finally going to break out and week one was a sign of things to come this year then he's a clear buy low. 

 

Everyone needs to try thinking of things from other angles. Because sometimes they're right but sometimes they're wrong. So it's healthy to consider other perspectives.

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I think the key to any conversation on market share is that it's highly subjective.  You can draw general inferences from how other perceive value but that may mean nothing to the person you are negotiating with - they may have gone to a game where that player had an insane performance in college and it's never left their mind, etc.

So yeah, I do agree thinking outside of the box (and communicating with your trade partner) is key.  YOUR perceptions are only relevant to YOU, not the person you are trading with, regardless of how accurate you believe them to be.  /rant

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12 minutes ago, AnonymousRob said:

What you, and many others, seem to be forgetting is perspective. Let's just focus on Corey Davis. If you think he's going to be a bum like he has in the past, he's of course a sell high. If you think he's finally going to break out and week one was a sign of things to come this year then he's a clear buy low. 

 

Everyone needs to try thinking of things from other angles. Because sometimes they're right but sometimes they're wrong. So it's healthy to consider other perspectives.

 

4 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

I think the key to any conversation on market share is that it's highly subjective.  You can draw general inferences from how other perceive value but that may mean nothing to the person you are negotiating with - they may have gone to a game where that player had an insane performance in college and it's never left their mind, etc.

So yeah, I do agree thinking outside of the box (and communicating with your trade partner) is key.  YOUR perceptions are only relevant to YOU, not the person you are trading with, regardless of how accurate you believe them to be.  /rant

Yes, it depends on your perception of what will happen to the player.  

If you think Corey Davis will continue to do well and you want him, then go get him.  But you're not really "Buying Low".  You're buying him at a higher perceived value than what he's worth.  Who would you have to give for him?  Maybe your disappointing Tyler Boyd, who only caught 4 balls for 33?  The guy who has Corey Davis and thinks he's a bum who just got lucky with a bunch of balls?  He'd be thrilled to trade you Corey Davis for your Tyler Boyd.  Tyler Boyd wasn't even in the same stratosphere as Corey Davis in preseason rankings.  Nobody would have offered that trade.  Yet here we are.  You think Corey Davis will be a top 20 receiver.  You're willing to give up a disappointing preseason top 20 receiver because you're worried about Joe Burrow and that this team will be trash.  Let's then say Corey Davis becomes who we thought he always is.  And Tyler Boyd and Joe Burrow gel and propels Boyd to a top 15 season performance.  

The guy who sold you Corey Davis "sold high" while "buying low" on Tyler Boyd.  You got the short end of the stick, because you "Bought High" on Corey Davis while "Selling Low" on Tyler Boyd. 

Now if the opposite were to happen, and Corey Davis becomes a top 20 WR while Boyd finishes WR75.  Then yes, it was an awesome trade for you.  But that's not the definition of Buying Low and Selling High.  You basically bought HotCommodity at $1000 and watched it skyrocket to $4000.  You got lucky.  It's not something that most people would predict would happen and certainly not what the perceived value of Corey Davis predraft was.

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1 minute ago, CooL said:

 

Yes, it depends on your perception of what will happen to the player.  

If you think Corey Davis will continue to do well and you want him, then go get him.  But you're not really "Buying Low".  You're buying him at a higher perceived value than what he's worth.  Who would you have to give for him?  Maybe your disappointing Tyler Boyd, who only caught 4 balls for 33?  The guy who has Corey Davis and thinks he's a bum who just got lucky with a bunch of balls?  He'd be thrilled to trade you Corey Davis for your Tyler Boyd.  Tyler Boyd wasn't even in the same stratosphere as Corey Davis in preseason rankings.  Nobody would have offered that trade.  Yet here we are.  You think Corey Davis will be a top 20 receiver.  You're willing to give up a disappointing preseason top 20 receiver because you're worried about Joe Burrow and that this team will be trash.  Let's then say Corey Davis becomes who we thought he always is.  And Tyler Boyd and Joe Burrow gel and propels Boyd to a top 15 season performance.  

The guy who sold you Corey Davis "sold high" while "buying low" on Tyler Boyd.  You got the short end of the stick, because you "Bought High" on Corey Davis while "Selling Low" on Tyler Boyd. 

Now if the opposite were to happen, and Corey Davis becomes a top 20 WR while Boyd finishes WR75.  Then yes, it was an awesome trade for you.  But that's not the definition of Buying Low and Selling High.  You basically bought HotCommodity at $1000 and watched it skyrocket to $4000.  You got lucky.  It's not something that most people would predict would happen and certainly not what the perceived value of Corey Davis predraft was.

Feel like everything you just said was just said in about 5 posts before this. Lets get back on topic of who is a buy low and sell high candidate 

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2 hours ago, dnorma2 said:

 

That's still not selling high lol ... It's selling at a loss ... The name of this thread is buy low sell high ... Not cut your losses /overpay thread .. someone evidently should start one though. 

 

It's as high as they believe it will be. If you think someone has no value and you get value for him you've sold high.

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31 minutes ago, CooL said:

 

Sigh.  Are we really getting into internet forum nuances?  I'm not in your head, so I don't really know if you believe you should sell Ekeler.  If you write something that is suggesting that if the QB situation worries someone, then they should sell high and get out while you can, is that not advice?  So do you not really believe that Ekeler has a worrisome situation and that somebody should get out?  Or are you merely stating a hypothetical and basically letting somebody make up their mind? 

The name of the thread is BUY LOW / SELL HIGH.  Selling Ekeler at this point is not SELL HIGH, no matter how you spin it.

Corey Davis would be a SELL HIGH.  He was expected to do nothing, he looked like the first read.  We likely don't think this will continue since AJ Brown is the better talent.  So SELL HIGH on Corey and see if somebody will bite, only to then watch him turn into the pumpkin that he is like he has been his whole career.

Christian Kirk would be a BUY LOW.  He had 1 reception for 0 yards on 5 targets.  Hopkins was a target monster.  But Fitz and Edmonds also got 5 targets, so Kirk was in the group of the next potential second receiver on this team.  He had the tenth highest depth of target in the league.  He had 35% of his team's air yards (Hopkins was over 50%) which means he got almost all of the remaining air yards on the team.

Odell is a BUY LOW.  He caught 3 balls for 22 yards.  Baker is Baker and looks awful.  The team once again is looking like they'll go nowhere.  But OBJ got ten targets, which is huge.  If he continues to be heavily targeted like this, his fantasy points will come.  

TJ Hockensen is a potential SELL HIGH.  We saw this last year where he exploded on to the scene, then did nothing.  I really feel like a lot of his usage was due to Golladay's absence.  Once Kenny G makes it back on the field, do we see Stafford forget about this guy again?  There will be Golladay, Marvin Jones, even that cockroach Danny Amendola...that's a lot of mouths to feed.  There's a lot of these athletic high upside tight ends that are probably available.  OJ Howard is one.  If I could upgrade somewhere else by selling off Hock, I'd do it.

 

Players carry a value into the season. MOST people understand a bad week one doesn't destroy that value BUT, it is possible that it is a sign to come.

Last year people sold OBJ as WR1 early in the season because others still believed he had WR1 value ROS. Getting WR1 value after bad games for a player who finished as a WR3 is selling HIGH.

If you think someone has no value and you get value for him you've sold high.

 

It's perspective. Try getting some.

 

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22 minutes ago, CooL said:

 

Yes, it depends on your perception of what will happen to the player.  ...

Yes, all this was discussed and explained earlier. As in just a few posts up on this very page. At this point let's just move on, because it's clear you have an extraordinarily strong grasp of your own perspective and there's no further benefit in hijacking things. Good luck this year.

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If ekeler classifies as selling high than this thread is meaningless ... Saying sell high on ekeler is like me saying sell high on mixon right now ... Or sell high on barkeley right now..  that has never been how sell high was used ... Or sell high on Akers .... If I bought a house and it lost 20 percent of it's value in a month that's not sell high ... That's cut my losses ... And if you think it's not going to get better that's an arbitrary opinion ... It could very well get better ... So you don't know if you are selling high for the future but you so know your not selling high from whence you purchased   

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