NoHablaIngles

2021 First Round Players

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15 hours ago, En Votto Veritas said:

I think 2021 is going to have a weirder first round than many years past because fantasy baseball managers tend to have very short term memories and this season was really odd.  At quick glance, a 16-team league first round might look like:

5-category studs (picks 1-7 in whatever order you like): Acuna, Betts, Soto, Tatis, Turner, Story, JoRam.

Guys on discount (picks 8-14 in whatever order you like): Trout, Arenado, Yelich, Bellinger, Lindor, Freeman.  (We all would be wise to recall from the 2020 first round that discounting superstars like Jose Ramirez for one bad half is a terrible plan)

Ace SPs (mixed into the above two tiers): Bieber, DeGrom, Cole.

Honestly I'd be ok with any of them and that means I think we'll see a lot of different rankings and drafts.  For 12 team leagues I'd drop 4 guys from the discount rack into the second round and hope that you end up with the 10th, 11th, or 12th pick so you can effectively get two first rounders on the turn.  I mean, would you really be upset with Yelich/Bellinger for your 1-2?  Or Arenado/Lindor?  


The value picks are going to be in the second round. I can see several first rounders falling and being replaced by guys who were having a great 60 game stretch. 
 

Machado is going to be interesting because he’s been a fantasy roller coaster ride.

2017: .259 - 33 HR - 95 RBI - 89 R - 9 SB

2018: .297 - 37 HR - 107 RBI - 84 R - 14 SB

2019: .256 - 32 HR - 85 RBI - 81 R - 5 SB

2020: .304 - 16 HR - 47 RBI - 44 R - 6 SB

2018 and 2020 Machado is a first round pick, 2017 and 2019 Machado isn’t. 

 

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1 hour ago, Sine_cera said:


The value picks are going to be in the second round. I can see several first rounders falling and being replaced by guys who were having a great 60 game stretch. 
 

Machado is going to be interesting because he’s been a fantasy roller coaster ride.

2017: .259 - 33 HR - 95 RBI - 89 R - 9 SB

2018: .297 - 37 HR - 107 RBI - 84 R - 14 SB

2019: .256 - 32 HR - 85 RBI - 81 R - 5 SB

2020: .304 - 16 HR - 47 RBI - 44 R - 6 SB

2018 and 2020 Machado is a first round pick, 2017 and 2019 Machado isn’t. 

 

Yeah I was recently chatting with @hgh22 on Machado vs Rendon in 2021. My general thinking is that you draft first round guys for their floor more than their ceiling. In Machado's case his ceiling is top 5-10, his floor is probably more like top 50 range as he's shown recently. Add in the fact that he will lose SS eligibility next year he feels a bit too risky for me as a first rounder because of his recent up and down performance.

Edited by bradwatson

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I can see Wander getting Luis Robert type helium next year .  People are getting more hesitant to trust the rays though.  

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Juan Soto is clear number 1 for me.

He lead the NL in batting average OBP and slugging.  Even with that mostly lousy Nats lineup, aside from TT, he was still on pace for over 110 runs and rbis.  I doubt the Nats stand still in the off-season ..we will see.

even if Acuna steals 35 bases next year, Soto is not a 0 in that category.  I think the difference in batting average and Rbis makes Soto a sight edge. Also I’m wondering if Acuna maybe isn’t a little injury prone.

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Here's the first bit of $ league ADP... You can read some analysis here... https://nfc.shgn.com/forum/baseball#/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=22580

You can check the online championship finals standings there too I was 13th a little luck with wins and especially saves and I would have had a shot, can't wait until next year.

You can check cool story bro if your interested in my $200 bet on Abreu at 51-1 to lead the majors in RBI's. I shared it this year in the Abreu thread I hope some of you were on board. I will share more findings but I think using fantasy baseball preparations on prop bets and future bets will be profitable. This was essentially my first bet and it was 100% fueled by fantasy preparation (check the Abreu thread) and I think not only betting on outright winners but betting on or against players you like or dislike could be profitable. IE there are always guys you are in on (higher then consensus) throw some $ on their overs and guys you are out on throw some money on some unders.

Round 1

1. Ronald Acuna Jr.
2. Fernendo Tatis Jr.
3. Shane Bieber
4. Mookie Betts
5. Mike Trout
6. Jose Ramirez
7. Gerritt Cole
8. Juan Soto
9. Christian Yelich
10. Trevor Story
11. Jake deGrom
12. DJ Lemahieu
13. Trea Turner
14. Freddy Freeman
15. Manny Machado

Round 2

1, Cody Bellinger
2. Francisco Lindor
3. Bryce Harper
4. Corey Seager
5. Trevor Bauer
6. Jack Flaherty
7. Yu Darvish
8. Max Scherzer
9. Bo Bichette
10. Lucas Giolito
11. Aaron Judge
12. Alex Bregman
13. Walker Buehler
14. Clayton Kershaw
15. Aaron Nola

Edited by turner46
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51 minutes ago, turner46 said:

Here's the first bit of $ league ADP... You can read some analysis here... https://nfc.shgn.com/forum/baseball#/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=22580

You can check the online championship finals standings there too I was 13th a little luck with wins and especially saves and I would have had a shot, can't wait until next year.

You can check cool story bro if your interested in my $200 bet on Abreu at 51-1 to lead the majors in RBI's. I shared it this year in the Abreu thread I hope some of you were on board. I will share more findings but I think using fantasy baseball preparations on prop bets and future bets will be profitable. This was essentially my first bet and it was 100% fueled by fantasy preparation (check the Abreu thread) and I think not only betting on outright winners but betting on or against players you like or dislike could be profitable. IE there are always guys you are in on (higher then consensus) throw some $ on their overs and guys you are out on throw some money on some unders.

Round 1

1. Ronald Acuna Jr.
2. Fernendo Tatis Jr.
3. Shane Bieber
4. Mookie Betts
5. Mike Trout
6. Jose Ramirez
7. Gerritt Cole
8. Juan Soto
9. Christian Yelich
10. Trevor Story
11. Jake deGrom
12. DJ Lemahieu
13. Trea Turner
14. Freddy Freeman
15. Manny Machado

Round 2

1, Cody Bellinger
2. Francisco Lindor
3. Bryce Harper
4. Corey Seager
5. Trevor Bauer
6. Jack Flaherty
7. Yu Darvish
8. Max Scherzer
9. Bo Bichette
10. Lucas Giolito
11. Aaron Judge
12. Alex Bregman
13. Walker Buehler
14. Clayton Kershaw
15. Aaron Nola

 

I guess Cole's strong finish kept him in the middle of the first.  A little surprised though.

 

Second round has a bunch of surprises.  Flaherty, Buehler, Nola, Giolito, Seager, Scherzer, Kershaw all surprises for me.

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5 minutes ago, B&F said:

 

I guess Cole's strong finish kept him in the middle of the first.  A little surprised though.

 

Second round has a bunch of surprises.  Flaherty, Buehler, Nola, Giolito, Seager, Scherzer, Kershaw all surprises for me.

 

The NFBC players typically push up pitching ADP compared to the more casual sites (usually) like yahoo, espn etc... so I would view the 6 pitchers in that group of 7 as the order in which to rank the pitchers but depending on your league could definitely be round 3 or 4 picks. If you read some of the analysis in the link I gave they did this same thing last year and were pretty close on what adp turned out to be.

"This past year, PreMature Drafters nailed 14 of 15 of what would be the final ADP in the first round of NFBC drafts."

"Every player who was drafted in the first round of last years PreMature Draft, have been selected in the first two rounds of this draft.
Except one player.
Nolan Arenado."

"21 of the 30 players selected, were also selected in the first two rounds last year.
The partial year just completed has a lot to do with that."

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10 hours ago, turner46 said:

Here's the first bit of $ league ADP... You can read some analysis here... https://nfc.shgn.com/forum/baseball#/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=22580

You can check the online championship finals standings there too I was 13th a little luck with wins and especially saves and I would have had a shot, can't wait until next year.

You can check cool story bro if your interested in my $200 bet on Abreu at 51-1 to lead the majors in RBI's. I shared it this year in the Abreu thread I hope some of you were on board. I will share more findings but I think using fantasy baseball preparations on prop bets and future bets will be profitable. This was essentially my first bet and it was 100% fueled by fantasy preparation (check the Abreu thread) and I think not only betting on outright winners but betting on or against players you like or dislike could be profitable. IE there are always guys you are in on (higher then consensus) throw some $ on their overs and guys you are out on throw some money on some unders.

Round 1

1. Ronald Acuna Jr.
2. Fernendo Tatis Jr.
3. Shane Bieber
4. Mookie Betts
5. Mike Trout
6. Jose Ramirez
7. Gerritt Cole
8. Juan Soto
9. Christian Yelich
10. Trevor Story
11. Jake deGrom
12. DJ Lemahieu
13. Trea Turner
14. Freddy Freeman
15. Manny Machado

Round 2

1, Cody Bellinger
2. Francisco Lindor
3. Bryce Harper
4. Corey Seager
5. Trevor Bauer
6. Jack Flaherty
7. Yu Darvish
8. Max Scherzer
9. Bo Bichette
10. Lucas Giolito
11. Aaron Judge
12. Alex Bregman
13. Walker Buehler
14. Clayton Kershaw
15. Aaron Nola


thank you for posting.  I didn’t realize the first draft was this early.  Kinda wanted in on it.  
 

fwiw, some dude took Yuli Gurriel in the 2nd round of the first draft last year.  

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1 hour ago, 4catztoomany said:

Surprised Machado went that high.  People must really be buying into this year.  Improved lineup certainly helps. 

He consistently hits over 30 HRs, middle of a solid LU, stays healthy.

His BA and SB contribution just tend to ying-yang.

Edit: For the record, no way i'm taking him before Lindor/Bellinger. THAT seems like an overreaction to this season.

Edited by Slatykamora

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2 hours ago, UberRebel said:

Is Bieber a consensus first rounder now?

He was great, but I'm leery of drafting pitchers in the first round. (or paying too much for them at auction).

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Mookie Betts is easily the number 1 pick.  Easily.

A) He has the safest floor.  Only 1 time in the past few 5 years did he finish outside of the top 15.  (a fluky year where he was dealing with some injuries).

B He has the highest ceiling.  Just look at 2018 for example.  Juan Soto can hit for that average and power but he won't steal 30 bases. 

C he is playing on an elite team

D he will never lose a late At Bat to be pinch run for or for his defense

E He is entering his prime age at age 27 (turning 28). 

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Round 3 of the aforementioned $ league

Round 3

1. Zac Gallen
2. Jose Abreu
3. Tim Anderson
4. Nolan Arenado
5. Kenta Maeda
6. Whit Merrifield
7. Luis Castillo
8. Adalberto Mondesi
9. Xander Bogaerts
10. Gleyber Torres
11. Luis Robert
12. Kyle Tucker
13. JT Realmuto
14. Anthony Rendon
15. Marcell Ozuna

5 teams have started 3 straight hitters

Betts-Bregman-Arenado (At first glance I'm not a fan of this not due to the 3 players selected but that the CI is already locked up after 3 rounds. I feel you lose so much flexibility both building your team through the draft and also in season management while adding players through FAAB, NFBC is a no trade high stakes site)

Lemahieu-Seager-Tucker (something to say with that batting average through 2 rounds that allows taking on batting average drains later but I like to get SB or pitching early as Power could be easily found and any position but maybe this owner has a plan, Lemahieu flexibility is nice . Tucker in the 3rd is a high risk high reward pick and adds some SB to the team)

Trea-Bryce-JT Realmuto (great start in the NFBC being a 2 C league, good chance 2 or 3 arms will be added to the mix through round 6)

Freeman-Lindor-Rendon (great 5 cat start especially when you consider you normally don't get any SB out of 1B and 3B so the lack of SB by Freeman and Rendon isn't as big as I brought up with Seager being a SS and possibly DJLM being a 2B but if plays at 1B, 3B or CI his speed is fine.)

Machado-Bellinger-Ozuna (assuming Ozuna returns to Atlanta a great start, getting some speed at 3B in Machado is nice and the flexibility and speed if using Bellinger at 1b or CI is great.)

4 teams started with 2 P's and 1 hitter and 6 with 2 hitters and 1 pitcher.

 

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1 hour ago, Moonshot said:

Mookie Betts is easily the number 1 pick.  Easily.

A) He has the safest floor.  Only 1 time in the past few 5 years did he finish outside of the top 15.  (a fluky year where he was dealing with some injuries).

B He has the highest ceiling.  Just look at 2018 for example.  Juan Soto can hit for that average and power but he won't steal 30 bases. 

C he is playing on an elite team

D he will never lose a late At Bat to be pinch run for or for his defense

E He is entering his prime age at age 27 (turning 28). 

 

I had Acuna #1 but you have me re-considering now. Great post.

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15 minutes ago, NoHablaIngles said:

 

I had Acuna #1 but you have me re-considering now. Great post.

 

But can't you say those same things for Acuna?  I know he hasn't been in the league very long but I think he's established himself as a fantasy stud.  Perhaps this is like a 1a,1b type of thing where you can't go wrong.

Edited by mehtavg2000

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On 9/27/2020 at 7:13 AM, KingJoffrey said:

Bellinger only had 1 great season, actually more like an amazing half a season.  Lots of players have career years.  So far to me he seems like a high power mediocre average and a few steals player .. unworthy of a first round.

 

 

 Wow this is a terrible take. His first year he came up and hit 39 HR in just 132 games with a .933 OPS. He was incredible.

His second year in 2018 was disappointing from a fantasy perspective, but he still went 25/14.

Then in 2019 he was otherworldly, going 47/14 with 235 R+RBI, and a 1.000+ OPS

This year the "season" was only 60 games and he had an OPS over 900.

 

So to recap, in one of his two partial seasons he hit at a near MVP level, and in one of his two full seasons he was the actual MVP. Not bad for a guy you claim had only 1 "amazing half season" im his entire career.

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8 hours ago, cs3 said:

 Wow this is a terrible take. His first year he came up and hit 39 HR in just 132 games with a .933 OPS. He was incredible.

His second year in 2018 was disappointing from a fantasy perspective, but he still went 25/14.

Then in 2019 he was otherworldly, going 47/14 with 235 R+RBI, and a 1.000+ OPS

This year the "season" was only 60 games and he had an OPS over 900.

 

So to recap, in one of his two partial seasons he hit at a near MVP level, and in one of his two full seasons he was the actual MVP. Not bad for a guy you claim had only 1 "amazing half season" im his entire career.

 

Umm..what are you talking about? Bellinger finishes 2020 with a  .239/.333/.455 slash line.  That's not an OPS over 900.

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17 hours ago, turner46 said:

Freeman-Lindor-Rendon (great 5 cat start especially when you consider you normally don't get any SB out of 1B and 3B so the lack of SB by Freeman and Rendon isn't as big as I brought up with Seager being a SS and possibly DJLM being a 2B but if plays at 1B, 3B or CI his speed is fine.)

 

👀 Lol this team is going to crush.

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Round 4

1. Brandon Woodruff
2. Eloy Jimenez
3. Trent Grisham
4. Tyler Glasnow
5. Rafael Devers
6. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
7. Starling Marte
8. Luke Voit
9. Ozzie Albies
10. Cavan Biggio
11. Eric Hosmer
12. Blake Snell
13. Keston Hiura
14. Teoscar Hernandez
15. George Springer

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22 hours ago, Moonshot said:

Mookie Betts is easily the number 1 pick.  Easily.

A) He has the safest floor.  Only 1 time in the past few 5 years did he finish outside of the top 15.  (a fluky year where he was dealing with some injuries).

B He has the highest ceiling.  Just look at 2018 for example.  Juan Soto can hit for that average and power but he won't steal 30 bases. 

C he is playing on an elite team

D he will never lose a late At Bat to be pinch run for or for his defense

E He is entering his prime age at age 27 (turning 28). 

Soto could easily hit for +20 HR power compared to Betts and also steal 15-20 bases while batting .320+. Betts is a slightly safer pick but no way is he the easy choice over perhaps the best hitter in the game, entering his fourth year and still in his early 20s. One of these years Soto is going to have a pants-on-head crazy year and it certainly could come in 2021.

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1 hour ago, turner46 said:

Round 4

1. Brandon Woodruff
2. Eloy Jimenez
3. Trent Grisham
4. Tyler Glasnow
5. Rafael Devers
6. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
7. Starling Marte
8. Luke Voit
9. Ozzie Albies
10. Cavan Biggio
11. Eric Hosmer
12. Blake Snell
13. Keston Hiura
14. Teoscar Hernandez
15. George Springer

Is this the first vast overreaction to the 60 game sample size?

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Teoscar isn't some quad-A guy, though.  He was a top 10-ish prospect in a loaded system who has shown a pretty consistent power/speed profile even as he's worked through issues with plate discipline.  He's unlikely to repeat the .348 BABIP, but the increased LD% and his Statcast hard hit numbers point to at least some of the BABIP growth being real.

If he hits .230-.240 like he did in his first couple of seasons, he's a bust.  If he can hit .270 because of the aforementioned batted ball changes and flirt with 30/15 in a full season, I think that's a nice profit.  There's going to be a guy in every room reaching for the brass ring, and if you went reasonably safe in the first three rounds (looks like that guy went Freeman, Kershaw, Abreu, Teoscar) I think it's a perfectly fine roll of the dice.

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