NoHablaIngles

2021 First Round Players

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, sleepysock said:

Soto could easily hit for +20 HR power compared to Betts and also steal 15-20 bases while batting .320+. Betts is a slightly safer pick but no way is he the easy choice over perhaps the best hitter in the game, entering his fourth year and still in his early 20s. One of these years Soto is going to have a pants-on-head crazy year and it certainly could come in 2021.

idk if I ever see him stealing 20 bags. I do agree otherwise tho, i'll be shocked if he doesn't hit around .320 the next few years, would not be surprised in the least bit to see a .330/50/120/.450 season from him.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

Teoscar isn't some quad-A guy, though.  He was a top 10-ish prospect in a loaded system who has shown a pretty consistent power/speed profile even as he's worked through issues with plate discipline.  He's unlikely to repeat the .348 BABIP, but the increased LD% and his Statcast hard hit numbers point to at least some of the BABIP growth being real.

If he hits .230-.240 like he did in his first couple of seasons, he's a bust.  If he can hit .270 because of the aforementioned batted ball changes and flirt with 30/15 in a full season, I think that's a nice profit.  There's going to be a guy in every room reaching for the brass ring, and if you went reasonably safe in the first three rounds (looks like that guy went Freeman, Kershaw, Abreu, Teoscar) I think it's a perfectly fine roll of the dice.

Yeah, there’s some upside there. But he’s a .245/33/7 guy per 162 ( a bump in SB w/TOR is possible), but in general I’d simply say he’s the same guy he was in June. And if he was an undrafted free agent in many leagues this past season, I have a hard time moving him into the 4th round.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, sleepysock said:

Soto could easily hit for +20 HR power compared to Betts and also steal 15-20 bases while batting .320+. Betts is a slightly safer pick but no way is he the easy choice over perhaps the best hitter in the game, entering his fourth year and still in his early 20s. One of these years Soto is going to have a pants-on-head crazy year and it certainly could come in 2021.

 

Didn't it actually come in the crazy year we call 2020? Covid Shortened but if you look at his stats extrapolated, it looks like .350 avg, 48-50 Hrs and a 1.185 ops and yeah about 20 steals to boot.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Yeah, there’s some upside there. But he’s a .245/33/7 guy per 162 ( a bump in SB w/TOR is possible),

 

If you're going to base your draft strategy solely on career per 162 stats, then you'll never get a breakout who busts, but you'll also never get one who pays off.  I am with you that I tend to look at more stable multi-year production, but you can't draft a roster full of just the safe guys and expect to win in a competitive league these days.

  

16 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

I have a hard time moving him into the 4th round.

 

The NFBC players do tend to push high risk/reward players like that up, particularly if there's an overall.  I don't know if this particular league is connected to any sort of overall prize, but even if not, I can definitely see his ADP well into the 4th, and I can see myself getting there in my 2021 drafts as well.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Yeah, there’s some upside there. But he’s a .245/33/7 guy per 162 ( a bump in SB w/TOR is possible), but in general I’d simply say he’s the same guy he was in June. And if he was an undrafted free agent in many leagues this past season, I have a hard time moving him into the 4th round.

It's worth pointing out that his current level of production goes all the way back to July of 2019. Ever since he was called back up to the Blue Jays last summer, he's put up 450 plate appearances of about a 50/10 full-season pace, good for a 142 wRC+. This uptick in performance over that timespan can partly be explained by an increase in his average exit velocity from 90.4 mph to 93.6 mph. I mean look at his Baseball Savant page... he's in the 98th percentile in Exit Velocity, 92nd percentile in xBA, 96th percentile in Hard Hit%, 97th percentile in xSLG, 94th percentile in xwOBA, and 98th percentile in Barrel%. Not to mention his 86th percentile sprint speed.

So what you're seeing is a guy who hits the ball as hard as anyone in baseball and with some great sprint speed... I don't think we should be surprised if he runs a higher than normal BABIP. If he can keep his K rate around 30%, I like his chances of running 270ish batting average. Combine that with 40+ home runs and 10+ steals and he's absolutely someone I'd be comfortable spending a 4th round pick on.

Edited by SnellMyFinger
  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, tonycpsu said:

Teoscar isn't some quad-A guy, though.  He was a top 10-ish prospect in a loaded system who has shown a pretty consistent power/speed profile even as he's worked through issues with plate discipline.  He's unlikely to repeat the .348 BABIP, but the increased LD% and his Statcast hard hit numbers point to at least some of the BABIP growth being real.

If he hits .230-.240 like he did in his first couple of seasons, he's a bust.  If he can hit .270 because of the aforementioned batted ball changes and flirt with 30/15 in a full season, I think that's a nice profit.  There's going to be a guy in every room reaching for the brass ring, and if you went reasonably safe in the first three rounds (looks like that guy went Freeman, Kershaw, Abreu, Teoscar) I think it's a perfectly fine roll of the dice.

LD% is fringy as a indication of skill. Especially in 60 games. His SwStr actually went up, his contact rate went down from last year. He's been a statcast darling for 3 years now.  Last year from July 23rd til season end: Teoscar hit .251 with 14 HRs/ 93.8 EV in 199 PAs. Hitting the ball just as hard to wrap up that season.

You could argue sustaining the same level of power in a year with a less juiced ball is actually growth. That doesn't suddenly make him a .270+ hitter though.

Meadows to me would be the upside gamble here. Javy Baez is the polished version of the type of player Teoscar is striving to be.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

LD% isn't sticky year over year, but it is one of the non-luck components of BABIP.  So is sprint speed, and Teoscar certainly has that.  Yes, if the LD% comes in low that means the BABIP and AVG will likely suffer, but there are plenty of productive non-Baez fantasy players who run a 30%-ish K% or higher but can still produce top 50 value in standard 5x5 because the contact they do make is so hard that the balls tend to find grass or seats instead of gloves.  I'm not saying Teoscar is Boomstick, but I do think the potential for an Ozuna trajectory is there.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't want to put Trout #1, but I'm not so sure he shouldn't be, either. Every single year there's a contender or three trying to push him off the throne, and every single year he finishes at or near the top. Sure, steals are a huge question these days as he probably won't get more than a handful, but he's as sure a thing as any player can possibly get.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, tonycpsu said:

Teoscar isn't some quad-A guy, though.  He was a top 10-ish prospect in a loaded system who has shown a pretty consistent power/speed profile even as he's worked through issues with plate discipline.  He's unlikely to repeat the .348 BABIP, but the increased LD% and his Statcast hard hit numbers point to at least some of the BABIP growth being real.

If he hits .230-.240 like he did in his first couple of seasons, he's a bust.  If he can hit .270 because of the aforementioned batted ball changes and flirt with 30/15 in a full season, I think that's a nice profit.  There's going to be a guy in every room reaching for the brass ring, and if you went reasonably safe in the first three rounds (looks like that guy went Freeman, Kershaw, Abreu, Teoscar) I think it's a perfectly fine roll of the dice.

I think Teoscar has 40+ HR power, not “flirt with 30” power.  Like, his xBa is through the roof and so are all his stat cast numbers for power.  I’m a believer for sure 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Slatykamora said:

LD% is fringy as a indication of skill. Especially in 60 games. His SwStr actually went up, his contact rate went down from last year. He's been a statcast darling for 3 years now.  Last year from July 23rd til season end: Teoscar hit .251 with 14 HRs/ 93.8 EV in 199 PAs. Hitting the ball just as hard to wrap up that season.

You could argue sustaining the same level of power in a year with a less juiced ball is actually growth. That doesn't suddenly make him a .270+ hitter though.

Meadows to me would be the upside gamble here. Javy Baez is the polished version of the type of player Teoscar is striving to be.


saying he is a “statcast darling for 3 years now” is HELLA disingenuous when his XBa was 220 in 2019 and 295 this year!!! He’s always had the POWER, yes, but he improved something this year for sure 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, Fbaseballgod said:


saying he is a “statcast darling for 3 years now” is HELLA disingenuous when his XBa was 220 in 2019 and 295 this year!!! He’s always had the POWER, yes, but he improved something this year for sure 

He's always had high EVs and Barrels/PA. xBA is interesting, but a formula, not an exact measurement. 

xBA off 128 batted ball events where contact rate has not improved? Wont tell me if it was an in the zone hot streak over skill improvement. Combined with other information it could. 

Does anyone have info on changes he's made? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, AnonymousRob said:

I don't want to put Trout #1, but I'm not so sure he shouldn't be, either. Every single year there's a contender or three trying to push him off the throne, and every single year he finishes at or near the top. Sure, steals are a huge question these days as he probably won't get more than a handful, but he's as sure a thing as any player can possibly get.


you can do a lot worst than trout at 1.1

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, kidtwentytwo said:

Waaaaay more surprised to see Hosmer in there than teoscar 

 

That was my reaction, yeah.  I believed enough in his drastic launch angle improvement that I invested in dynasty, but not as a top 50 bat.  I get that 1B is thin, but it rarely ends well when you start pushing guys up several rounds based on positional scarcity.  Even with his improvements he still only finished 7th among 1B.  A lot of that has to do with the injury, and he's been an ironman throughout his career, but so was Hunter Pence until he hit his early 30s.  I just can't see the case for Hosmer before the 7th/8th round when I can probably hang back and get Christian Walker or Renato Nunez in the double digit rounds.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, tonycpsu said:

 

That was my reaction, yeah.  I believed enough in his drastic launch angle improvement that I invested in dynasty, but not as a top 50 bat.  I get that 1B is thin, but it rarely ends well when you start pushing guys up several rounds based on positional scarcity.  Even with his improvements he still only finished 7th among 1B.  A lot of that has to do with the injury, and he's been an ironman throughout his career, but so was Hunter Pence until he hit his early 30s.  I just can't see the case for Hosmer before the 7th/8th round when I can probably hang back and get Christian Walker or Renato Nunez in the double digit rounds.

 

I think people really like the lineup on that team. You get a consistent hitter like Hosmer on a great hitting offense and it makes sense. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, kidtwentytwo said:


you can do a lot worst than trout at 1.1

 

Trout's my number 2 after Juan Soto.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
57 minutes ago, KingJoffrey said:

 

Trout's my number 2 after Juan Soto.

Trout is my #2 after Betts.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 9/27/2020 at 3:32 PM, En Votto Veritas said:

I think 2021 is going to have a weirder first round than many years past because fantasy baseball managers tend to have very short term memories and this season was really odd.  At quick glance, a 16-team league first round might look like:

5-category studs (picks 1-7 in whatever order you like): Acuna, Betts, Soto, Tatis, Turner, Story, JoRam.

Guys on discount (picks 8-14 in whatever order you like): Trout, Arenado, Yelich, Bellinger, Lindor, Freeman.  (We all would be wise to recall from the 2020 first round that discounting superstars like Jose Ramirez for one bad half is a terrible plan)

Ace SPs (mixed into the above two tiers): Bieber, DeGrom, Cole.

Honestly I'd be ok with any of them and that means I think we'll see a lot of different rankings and drafts.  For 12 team leagues I'd drop 4 guys from the discount rack into the second round and hope that you end up with the 10th, 11th, or 12th pick so you can effectively get two first rounders on the turn.  I mean, would you really be upset with Yelich/Bellinger for your 1-2?  Or Arenado/Lindor?  


If picking late 1st I’m almost certainly using one of my sandwich picks on DeGrom, Bieber or Cole and pairing them with whoever my highest ranked hitter still available is.  A scenario where you come away with one of the T1 SPs + Lindor/JoRam/Yelich is a great foundation.  I’m not gonna be mad at any spot in the draft order next season.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

re; Bichette 

 

I don’t doubt he may put up 1st round production in ‘21, but with SS being such a deep position I’m less inclined to invest in round 2, and definitely not taking him top-12. If you miss out on next year’s crop of top tier SS “settling” for someone like TA7 a few rounds later, or getting Semien at a very steep discount is still a win imo.  And if you missed out completely, there will be another Swanson type to bust out so that is one position I’m happy being left with whoever falls in the draft.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My far-too-early 1st round rankings currently look something like this: 

  1. Acuna
  2. Betts
  3. Tatis
  4. Soto
  5. Turner
  6. Trout
  7. Bieber
  8. Ramirez
  9. Yelich
  10. DeGrom
  11. Bellinger
  12. Story
  13. Lindor
  14. Cole 
  15. Freeman 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ROUND 5

1.Jesus Luzardo
2. Max Fried
3. Dinelson Lamet
4. Michael Conforto
5. Zach Plesac
6. Stephen Strasburg
7. Austin Meadows
8. Sonny Gray
9. Brandon Lowe
10. Corbin Burnes
11. Mike Clevinger
12. Jeff McNeil
13. Hyun Jin Ryu
14. Sixto Sanchez
15. Josh Hader

Round 6

1. Lance Lynn
2. Liam Hendriks
3. Carlos Carrasco
4. Zack Wheeler
5. Javy Baez
6. Pete Alonso
7. Dominic Smith
8. Jose Berrios
9. Chris Paddack
10. Yoan Moncada
11. Sal Perez
12. Dylan Bundy
13. Mike Yastrzemsi
14. Charlie Blackmon
15. Matt Olson

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not much of a Baez fan but he's a huge steal in the 6th @ Pick 80

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Jesus Luzardo seems way too high.  He gives up too many home runs and had a FIP 4.19.  I get that he has potential but so does every pitcher eat him on that list.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here's my super (not really) strategy of how I am going to draft in 2021 and why.  Keep in mind I'm not really heavy into fantasy baseball as much as yooz guyz.

My basic idea here is that my top tier - first round pick MUST have stolen bases.  I don't want to go for Trout in the top 5 because he doesn't really steal that many bases anymore.  If you take Trout let's say first overall or maybe 2nd which a lot of people will do, well by the time the and pick rolls around, all of the top multi category guys will be taken.  So you're left having to reach a little with stolen bases and you never know where are you going to wind up.  Maybe there's a huge reach somewhere in the 3rd/4th round for guys like Trent Grisham and Tommy Pham.  Next thing you know, you're down on steals and you need to gamble with Mallex Smith type of guys.

Then there's the Shortstops.  The top Shortstops all have steals and all have been placed in the middle of the first round.  The reason why is that although the SS are great, there are sooooo many great Shortstops!!!. I am ok with missing out on Tatis if I can get Seager a bit discounted later on. Even guys like Tim Anderson I'd be happy with in the later rounds.

Rounding out the 1st round are guys who are still really really good but lack stolen bases.  I don't take pitchers in the first round.

So without further ado..

1.) Mookie Betts.  I love Mookie.  As mentioned above.  Super consistent, lots of upside.  Put together one of the best fantasy years ever a few years ago.  Great team.  Never needs to sit for defense.  

2.) Ronald Acuna. Super fast guy.  Great power.  Great team.  I rank him a bit lower because maybe his batting average won't be great.  But he could easily hit for a better average too.

3) Jose Ramirez.  Really only had one bad year but lots of power and speed. Team isn't the greatest but some of the young guys can improve.  Can hit for average too like he did in the past.  Remind me a lot of Mookie Betts just not as consistent.

4) Juan Soto.  I'd rate him lower but he does steal some bases to combine with good power and average.  Never had a bad year.

5) Fernando Tatis.  Ok now begins the Super Shortstop portion.  Not really sure about him or Trea Turner.  Coin Flip. But I think Tatis might just be a bit more special based on what people are saying about him.

6) Trea Turner.  Another super shortstop who steals.

7) Trevor Story Really Consistent guy. Steals bases, I like him a lot.

8 Mike Trout Trout is just the best non-steal guy out there.  lots of homers Good batting average

9 Christian yelich Toss up between him and Cody Bellinger.  But when Yelich was stealing bases he was stealing more bases than Bellinger.  The power and speed upside seems a bit better.

10 Cody Bellinger.  Consistent power hitter but only good for about 15 steals so I can't rate him higher.

11 DJ Lemahieu.  Awesome guy who hits for a great average on a great team.  Just lacks speed.

12 Freddie Freeman Just a really good consistent guy.

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.