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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 2020-2021 Outlook


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5 minutes ago, apatas said:

You can't be serious: SGA over Jamal Murray and Chris Paul? I really don't believe.

As a Canadian who watches both closely, you take SGA 10/10 times over Murray. Murray is not great during the regular season and has a lot of competition for shots in Denver meanwhile SGA could average 25 shots a game with better counting stats and stocks. Expect SGA to take it to another gear this season 

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So, I decided to dig deeper and took a took at every player from 2018-19 to 2019-20, to see how guards were affected by a big increase in usage. I filtered out all big men, players who played less tha

I don't understand your list. I don't know how you can just write off SGA when there's several players you just mentioned that are even more questionable as top 50's. JJJ - This man is still reco

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12 minutes ago, apatas said:

You can't be serious: SGA over Jamal Murray and Chris Paul? I really don't believe.

Yes believe it. CP3 is old will he be good? Yes but he has no upside. Jamal Murray has upside but so does SGA difference is SGA is the unquestioned number 1 option who will play tons of minutes and pile up tons of numbers on a rebuilding team. 
 

SGA last year 19 ppg 1.2 threes 5.9 rpg 3.3 apg 1.1 stls 0.7 blocks I expect all of these to go up while his fg% will go down

 

jamal Murray 18.5 ppg 1.9 threes 4 rpg 4.8 apg 1.1 stls 0.3 blocks on a deep Denver team that hasn’t changed much at all.

 

Edited by Johnnyapplebot
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7 minutes ago, Johnnyapplebot said:

CP3 assists per game has gone down every season for the last 7 years. Will he average more assists with Ayton and Booker than last? Yes. His scoring will definitely go down as the 3rd option.

CP3 is one of my all-time favorites. He is a real masterclass player. I can't take him behind SGA. It would be betrayal...

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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander All Star this year. Top 30. Maybe Top 20.........I need to trade for him in at least 2 Dynasty Leagues.....He can do it all. Plus going into Year 3........This is where a lot of players have that breakout season. OKC showing a lot of confidence by trading Chris Paul and Schroder.

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22 minutes ago, dino10kk said:

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander All Star this year.

 

most
                    certainly
                                                  not

Dead last team in the league, can't have a player on an All Star team. Never happend, never will

Edited by Stefan
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26 minutes ago, dino10kk said:

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander All Star this year. Top 30. Maybe Top 20.........I need to trade for him in at least 2 Dynasty Leagues.....He can do it all. Plus going into Year 3........This is where a lot of players have that breakout season. OKC showing a lot of confidence by trading Chris Paul and Schroder.

It looks insanity...

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9 hours ago, apatas said:

You can't be serious: SGA over Jamal Murray and Chris Paul? I really don't believe.

 

I would do it. That's how much I'm all in on SGA. Murray is still 2nd fiddle to Jokic while I just can't trust CP3's health. 

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Look at OKC's starting lineup right now. 

PG SGA
SG Dort
SF Bazley
PF 90 year old Horford 
C the rook Poku

That team is trash. SGA will face alot of double teams. Teams will be forcing him to shoot from outside more which means unless he becomes a much better 3 pt shooter this offseason alone he will certainly struggle. The usage will be great but not the efficiency. People saying he plays at his own pace, yea I'm sure he got away with that when he had other scorers, shooters, and playmakers on that team. Being the go to guy and pretty much the only playmaker he will find out he wont be able to get away with that.

If he can't shoot good from deep then he will be forced to attack the paint a lot. He's not Westbrook. Heck even Westbrook's numbers when he was the only option on OKC weren't good outside of the triple double he averaged (high to's, poor fg %). He is not Russ. I would expect best case scenario he gets is 21, 6, 6 with poor efficiency UNLESS he becomes a much better shooter this offseason. It is possible, great players are capable of achieving improvements like that in 1 offseason but I don't see him doing that. 

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U really can't compare the Thunder last year taking houston game 7 and Thunder this year going for a top draft pick. All of Shai's teammates have been downgraded. I doubt he has had enuff offseason to improve much. This team is a train wreck this year. He has no real teammate to pass the ball to. he has no real teammate to pass the ball to him. He has no real teammate to rebound. I think Shai will be the best player on Thunder but may not crack top 100 value. However the other 4 starters on team do have sleeper appeal on theory somebody has to score the 75 points they lose with every game. As for the rookie Poku the guy weighs 200 pounds so he has zero chance to play at all unless he discovers the Oliver Miller diet ASAP.

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Can’t judge the situation until we see what OKC fully does. I’m sure the GM will turn some of those picks into players otherwise Shai will want out too. If they keep Horford and Hill at least he has a couple playmakers to help 

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14 minutes ago, DonutGiveUp said:

Can’t judge the situation until we see what OKC fully does. I’m sure the GM will turn some of those picks into players otherwise Shai will want out too. If they keep Horford and Hill at least he has a couple playmakers to help 

Want out? He is only going into his 3rd season haha, he has no say. Hasn't even proven himself yet. 

Edited by RedDogNamedClippers
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27 minutes ago, RedDogNamedClippers said:

Want out? He is only going into his 3rd season haha, he has no say. Hasn't even proven himself yet. 

I meant if this is how OKC wants to build he’ll be another top player to want out. He’s a future star to surround him with such dross is a shame

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Thunder Roster Today;

Dort

SGA

Darius Bazley

Pokusevski

Al Horford

Trevor Ariza

George Hill

Justin Jackson

Theo Maledon

Hamidu Diallo

Darius Miller

Ty Jerome

TJ Leaf

Admiral Schofield

Mike Muscala

Isiah Roby

Vincent Poirier

Josh Gray

Kenrich Williams

Zylan Cheatham

Josh Hall 2wP

Some of these dudes seem like created players in 2K lol

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I'm really torn on SGA for fantasy this season.  On one hand, I can see him fully blowing up as the clear main guy on OKC.  The MPG & usage should be huge and his counting stats should increase across the board.  However, the major loss of talent on OKC may hurt his efficiency and opposing teams may solely focus on stopping him (however, that thought process can be overrated as many teams don't put forth a great effort on defense).  I am betting that talent and opportunity win out and SGA has a very good year for fantasy but there is still some lingering doubt in the back of my mind.  Worth the risk IMO.

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11 minutes ago, Stefan said:

there u have it

 

 


Interesting. I'm not familiar with what a 49.8 TS% would look like if it was divided between FG% and FT% so I did a quick google search for players with a TS% that was close to 49.8% and found this website: https://hashtagbasketball.com/true-shooting-percentage 

R# PLAYER TEAM POS GP MPG TS% GP (H) MPG (H) TS% (H) GP (A) MPG (A) TS% (A) GP (L30) MPG (L30) TS% (L30)
300 Anfernee Simons POR PG 74 20.7 50.0 36 20.3 48.0 38 21.1 51.8      
301 De'Anthony Melton MEM PG 61 19.4 50.0 28 20.2 51.2 33 18.7 48.9      
302 Kent Bazemore SAC SF 68 24.8 49.9 31 25.5 51.5 37 24.3 48.5      
303 Darius Garland CLE SG 59 30.9 49.9 31 30.8 49.1 28 31.1 50.7      
304 Frank Ntilikina NYK PG 57 20.8 49.7 31 20.0 42.8 26 21.8 57.6      
305 Taurean Prince BKN PF 64 29.0 49.7 32 29.7 47.9 32 28.4 51.7      
306 Ky Bowman GSW PG 45 22.6 49.4 25 22.4 51.1 20 22.8 47.3      
307 Draymond Green GSW PF 43 28.4 49.1 23 28.6 50.0 20 28.2 48.1      
308 Justin Jackson DAL SF 68 15.6 49.1 36 15.3 49.8 32 15.9 48.4      
309 Luguentz Dort OKC SF 42 23.7 49.1 19 22.7 47.3 23 24.6 50.4      
310 Hamidou Diallo OKC SG 49 18.8 49.0 25 18.9 50.6 24 18.7 47.5      
311 RJ Barrett NYK SG 56 30.4 47.9 27 29.9 51.6 29 30.9 44.1      
312 Blake Griffin DET PF 18 28.5 47.6 11 29.1 48.9 7 27.4 45.6      
313 Jerome Robinson WAS SG 63 15.5 47.6 31 15.5 54.5 32 15.5 40.4      
314 Sekou Doumbouya DET PF 38 19.8 47.4 17 19.7 53.9 21 20.0 43.2      
315 Dewayne Dedmon ATL C 44 17.6 47.3 19 17.5 40.5 25 17.7 52.4      
316 Terrance Ferguson OKC SG 60 21.7 47.1 34 20.4 45.7 26 23.3 48.7      
317 Allen Crabbe MIN SG 37 17.6 47.0 18 17.5 54.5 19 17.8 40.5      
318 Kevin Knox II NYK SF 65 17.9 47.0 32 17.7 46.8 33 18.2 47.3      
319 Elfrid Payton NYK PG 45 27.7 47.0 23 27.8 48.9 22 27.6 45.1      
320 Jarrett Culver MIN SF 63 23.9 46.7 31 25.6 44.7 32 22.3 48.9  


It's telling me he'd be lumped with a bunch of ineffecient players in the league but I still don't think this would be the most accurate way to gauge what his numbers could end up looking like since his FG% (46%) & FT% (80.7%) were nothing to discount.

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9 hours ago, Stefan said:

there u have it

 

 

 

Not disputing the data or the perspective, but it is difficult to gauge the validity and applicability of these data without more context.  135 minutes is a small data sample.  Do we know who they were playing?  Who was on the floor with him?  Who was he guarding? The score of the game? Do we know if the TOs were bad passes, teammates not making the play, offensive fouls? Was SGA injured? Tired? 2nd game of b-2-b?

Mike Gallagher posts lots of snippets of small data sample assessments.  Some have merit, some don't.  However, most have no context so they are just snapshots of data.

What we do know is mostly anecdotal but plausible.  CP3 tends to make most players more efficient both as a playmaker and in his ability to score. His absence from the lineup will probably mean decreased efficiency for all players on his team.  It would be interesting to see the same comparison for both CP3 and Schroeder.  

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I recognize this is the SGA thread but I do find it interesting that several years ago the NBA nixed a CP3 trade to the Lakers as creating a competitive imbalance.  Now, they seem ok with super teams forming, even using very creative contract scenarios, and teams like OKC trading the entire team for minimum level players and draft picks.  I do believe the NBA has a minimum salary requirement for teams.  Did the team really need to be blown up?  

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2 minutes ago, mbroo5880i said:

I recognize this is the SGA thread but I do find it interesting that several years ago the NBA nixed a CP3 trade to the Lakers as creating a competitive imbalance.  Now, they seem ok with super teams forming, even using very creative contract scenarios, and teams like OKC trading the entire team for minimum level players and draft picks.  I do believe the NBA has a minimum salary requirement for teams.  Did the team really need to be blown up?  

Yes.

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30 minutes ago, RedDogNamedClippers said:

Yes.

 

I guess I understand they felt they weren't going to compete for a championship with the prior roster composition.  I also understand that moving Paul gave them a nice return but then they jettisoned one player they got in return- Oubre - who is young and arguably would help them remain competitive and another - Rubio - who might have helped with SGA's development. I get the concept of gathering high draft picks and tanking constantly but we see where it got Philadelphia.  Several years of mediocrity followed by the current position of being competitive but likely no closer to a championship than they were before they started tanking.  

The only way OKC will ever compete for a championship is to truly hit on several high draft picks like they did with Durant, Westbrook, and Harden. The rest of the manipulations just inflicts pain on their fanbase.  I know.  As a Pacer fan, the Pacers are in the same boat.  However, at least, they are competitive enough that they make an occasional run in the playoffs.

By the time they become competitive again, SGA will have already asked to be traded.

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  • tonycpsu changed the title to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 2020-2021 Outlook

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